Understanding the Unexpected U-Turn in Summer E15 Approval
White Paper Rejoinder to DTN's White Paper by Brian L. Milne
By Marc J. Rauch
Co-Publisher, Co-Owner, Analyst,
and Author of THE ETHANOL PAPERS
On Tuesday, October 5, 2021, I read the White Paper written by Brian L. Milne, and published by DTN, an information company that seeks to empower its readers/customers with intelligent and actionable insights.
Mr. Milne's White Paper titled "Fallout From An Unexpected U-Turn in Summer E15" is presumably meant to explain what went wrong along the boulevard to higher ethanol-gasoline blend usage. I read it three times. It didn't do anything; it explained nothing; offered no analytical insight, revealed no fallout, and it didn't even acknowledge that a re-hearing of the issue has already been denied. Basically, Mr. Milne's White Paper is a limp doc (document), so to speak.
NOTE: I received a phone call from Brian Milne this afternoon, and we had a fairly lengthy conversation about his White Paper and my interpretation of it. Brian detailed his position, and his breadth of experience and knowledge in covering the fuels and energy markets. From his "centerist" objective opinion, he believes that his analysis is what is correct for his clientele and melieu of writing. I, on the other hand, often make very subjective comments on positions I feel strongly about. This is not to suggest that Brian doesn't also feel strongly about what he writes, but what I and The Auto Channel do is different than what he and DTN does. Brian may be correct, and there may be much more analysis and insight than I have given him credit for. With this in mind, please make sure that you use the link above to read Brian's White Paper and consider his comments very closely.
What has occurred with ethanol fuel is nothing short of a debacle. What could be, what should be, one of - if not THE - most significant events in the history of the modern world to remove a monstrous source of ill health, financial ruin, wars, and environmental pollution has been frittered away.
Ethanol should have been the primary fuel for internal combustion engines 100 years ago. It should be the primary fuel for internal combustion engines today. It should be the primary fuel for internal combustion engines well into the next century and beyond. It should be manufactured domestically, in practically all countries, and it should be a great source of livelihood and wealth for millions of people, not just a handful of enemy nations and self-serving corporations who have never given a damn about their fellow citizens, free markets, and democracy.
This summer, we wrote and published three essays that do encapsulate the entire mismanaged situation.
• In July - "Ignorant Bipartisan Bill Threatens to Push Ethanol and Clean Air Back 20 Years."
• In August - "Evaluating The Cost Of A Renewed Summer E15 Ban."
• In September the short and sharp - "New Appeals Court Ruling Tightens The Noose Around The Neck of the Ethanol Industry."
In case you forgot them, or missed them, or ignored them, here they are in my "White Paper Rejoinder" to Brian Milne's effort:
AUTO CENTRAL - July 21, 2021:
Ignorant Bipartisan Bill Threatens to Push Ethanol and Clean Air Back 20 Years
Big Oil-owned politicians trot out laughable arguments against ethanol...again
Just when you think that things can't get any more ridiculous, four senators have decided to turn the dopey-dial up a few notches. Democrat Diane Feinstein, Republican Pat Toomey, Democrat Bob Menendez, and Republican Susan Collins are introducing a new bill, a Corn Ethanol Mandate Elimination Act, to end the corn ethanol mandate in the Renewable Fuel Standard. They are doing this because they think that the bill will help reduce carbon emissions from transportation fuels.
If there's a good side to the introduction of this bill, it's that it proves there is really great equality in America today. You can be male, or female. You can be a Democrat, or a Republican. You can be from the upper most reaches of the northeast coast, or the far west coast. You can represent a garden state, or a coal mining state. You can be of one ethnic and religious group or another. It doesn't matter, anyone can be stupid.
Feinstein is quoted as saying,
“The federal corn ethanol mandate no longer makes sense when better, lower-carbon alternatives exist...Corn ethanol achieves little to no reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. It’s time to end the mandate and instead support more advanced biofuels and biodiesel that won’t contribute to climate change or drive up the cost of food.”
In fact, Feinstein's entire statement in incorrect. There is no federal corn ethanol mandate. Corn is used because in America it makes sense to use corn, versus other crops. Ethanol, whether it is produced from corn or sugar or beets or sorghum reduces greenhouse gas emissions. An internal combustion engine running on corn ethanol does not create more greenhouse gas emissions than sugar ethanol. There are actually no proven "more advanced" biofuels than ethanol produced from crops. Biodiesel made from ethanol is as good and clean as any biodiesel. And the use of corn to produce ethanol fuel has no effect on the price of human food. The food versus fuel myth was debunked more than a decade ago, shortly after the original lie was first circulated.
Toomey is quoted as saying,
“The federal government forcing Americans to buy billions of gallons of corn ethanol is terrible policy on many levels...For starters, it imposes financial harm on consumers and refineries, risking thousands of good-paying jobs. Further, the RFS drives up the cost of gas and food, harms our environment, and damages engines.”
Unfortunately, for Toomey, his statement is riddled with the same amount of preposterously wrong information. See, there's equality in stupidity. The federal government has forced and allowed TRILLIONS of gallons of gasoline and petroleum diesel to poison Americans for over a century. This poison has caused or contributed to the deaths and long term illness of millions and millions of Americans, not to mention millions and millions of other animals. The financial harm done to individual Americans and the country in total is incalculable - it makes any claim of financial harm caused by ethanol to be insanely absurd. Ethanol reduces the price of fuel at the pump, and has kept the price of gasoline from soaring to even higher levels than it ever has. Ethanol fuel cleans the environment, and it cleans engines...it does not harm engines. All...ALL... internal combustion engines can safely, efficiently, and economically use high(er) levels of ethanol, regardless of age or brand of manufacturer.
Menendez and Collins added their half-cent of misinformation.
"The corn ethanol mandate has failed to live up to its emissions reduction promises, while contributing to higher food prices, causing issues for motorists, and leading to other environmental damages...It’s time that we move on from this misguided policy and shift our focus to real solutions that truly address climate change and reduce other harmful emissions.”
Collins quote is,
"Corn ethanol blended gasoline poses significant economic and safety risks by damaging or destroying engines of older cars, boats, and snowmobiles; causing food and feed prices to rise; and presenting significant environmental concerns...Our bipartisan legislation would eliminate the corn ethanol mandate for renewable fuel, encouraging the development of alternative advanced biofuels to meet our energy and environmental challenges.”
All that Menendez and Collins presented was a rubber stamping of the lies and gross exaggerations spouted by the other two Big Oil shills.
It is literally a disgrace for Feinstein, Toomey, Menendez, and Collins to be introducing this legislation. They are wrong, the information they tout is wrong, and America's continued use of deadly petroleum oil fuels is disgusting.
The terrible tragedy is that the bogus claims from these four politicians will breathe new life into the egregious old lies against ethanol, and the ethanol advocacy industry will do nothing about it except to continue their toothless political lobbying. A consumer ethanol education and awareness program is the only way to effectively stop the anti-ethanol lies.
AUTO CENTRAL - August 14, 2021:
Evaluating The Cost Of A Renewed Summer E15 Ban
A matter of life or death, in many ways
An editorial written and published recently (August 5th) by Cindy Zimmerman of Energy.Agwired.com presents a somewhat depressing picture for the ethanol fuel industry. The headline on Cindy's piece is "Renewed Summer E15 Ban Would Cost Industry Billions."
When I say Cindy's editorial is "somewhat" depressing, that's not to minimize the significance of losing billions of dollars in revenue. But, in relationship to the loss of the entire ethanol fuel industry, which is exactly what will happen if the willy-nilly frenzied rush towards an electric vehicle fantasyland continues, then losing a few billion dollars is a relatively minor event.
This scenario is becoming more likely because internal combustion engines powered by ethanol (either exclusively or in high ethanol-gasoline blend levels) has not been given a fair shake. Among the primary reasons why ethanol has not been given a fair shake is because there's been far too much pussyfooting going on...too much "let's have lunch" with Congressional aides...way too much hope that enough elected officials will have a sudden epiphany and realize that their support of the oil industry has contributed to the death of millions of humans. Oh, and there's been far too much concern about upsetting the feelings of people in the oil industry.
On several occasions, I've heard ethanol industry stakeholders say: "We have to be careful and not rock the boat too hard because the oil industry is our biggest customer."
This may have been a good point a decade or two ago. But there's a paradigm shift going on and the ethanol fuel industry no longer has to kowtow to the oil industry. The shoe is now on the other foot.
Simple, if the internal combustion engine goes away, the oil industry is fu... - screwed. The only thing that can make gasoline acceptable in a world consumed with the fear of environmental catastrophe is if enough ethanol is used in every gallon of liquid fuel. The oil industry has already tried their best options to raise octane to the levels needed to operate high compression internal combustion engines: tetraethyl lead and MTBE. They have nothing else.
Even if gasoline was only making up 10% or 15% in a gallon of fuel (via an E85 or E90 blend), at least they would have some kind of market left for gasoline as a transportation fuel. If vehicles go 100% electric, there is 0% market for gasoline. And there would be 0% market for ethanol fuel.
This is all happening because there has been no significant, determined outreach to the public about the benefits of ethanol. It has not been explained to them that ethanol fuel in an internal combustion engine is at least as clean as electric, if not more so. It has not been explained to the frightened public that ethanol, which can be used in every single internal combustion engine, is available right now...TODAY!
Consumers and consumer-influencers are currently about as ignorant of ethanol fuel as they were 25 years ago. The ethanol industry has failed to create the level of clamor that is necessary to build a groundswell of
consumer demand that would force political office holders to take their heads out of their a----, er well, take their hands out of the pockets of the oil industry, and mandate significantly higher ethanol blends.
Think of it like this:
A few days ago, someone in the ethanol fuel business said to me, "My husband and I think that E15 is stupid." Well, I agree, I think E15 is stupid. It may have been smart 11 years ago, when the EPA first publically announced that E15 had passed all its tests and that it is as safe to use as E10. A mandate back then moving America's regular fuel to E15 would have been an okay natural progression from E10. But a decade has been lost.
Coincidentally, by 2010, Brazil had already been safely, efficiently, and economically using E15 or higher blends for more than three decades. These 30+ years proved that any alarms related to using E15 or higher blends in "summer temperatures" was bunk! Brazil began regularly mandating E20 and higher in 1984.
The fact that Brazilians didn't drop dead by the millions because of the emissions coming from vehicles using E15 and higher should have been evidence enough that it was safe for America (and the rest of the world) to come out of the E10 closet. (Brazil's population increased from about 115 million in 1978, to about 196 million in 2010.) And in case you didn't know, when the EPA conducted its E15 testing, they didn't just test E15, they also tested E20. The results for E20 were the same as E15 and E10: IT IS SAFE.
By the way, I know this because I'm the one who asked the question about testing blends higher than E15 during the October 13, 2010 press conference that supposedly "granted" E15 use (listen to the press conference by clicking on the video window just below.
In the meantime - that is in the 11 years since the EPA granted the use of E15 in America - we are now a full decade closer to oblivion, if we are to believe that we are marching towards the end of all animal life because of man-made climate change.
Therefore, the petroleum oil industry is not in danger of losing a few billion dollars, they're in danger of losing TRILLIONS of dollars. This is why the ethanol fuel industry should now be driving the bus (pun intended).
As my business partner and I opined in a 2019 editorial, "Ethanol is the SAVIOR of the Oil Industry and much more" (read the editorial by CLICKING HERE).
However, for the ethanol industry to save itself, the oil industry, and all life on planet Earth, they have to stop pussyfooting around. It won't happen by taking another Congressional aide to lunch. It won't happen by complacently standing by as the California Air Resources Board duplicates the testing that the EPA conducted more than 11 years ago and the equivalent Brazilian agency conducted three decades ago. And it definitely won't happen by politely allowing the latest gold-digging political appointees to the Environmental Protection Agency to ponder, yet again, what position they should take on protecting our environment and being of any value to our country.
The process of saving the fuel industries, as well as life on Earth, might happen with an aggressive program that educates and motivates consumers and consumer-influencers. A program like this could force a change in thinking regarding the enormous usefulness of internal combustion engines and the fuel that powers those engines.
A couple of weeks ago, I attended the first automotive journalist event held since the onslaught of the Covid-19 crisis early last year. It was the Western Automotive Journalists Media Days get-together. WAJ is the second-largest automotive-journalist group in America. These types of events are a great way to talk directly to the people who create and spread news about the automotive world. These are the people who influence most automotive-buying decisions. (Participating in these events are part of the education and awareness program that The Auto Channel has been recommending to the ethanol fuel industry - our program is called NEAT, National Ethanol Action Team.)
On the opening night of this year's WAJ event, the keynote presentation that was given prior to dinner was made by a company that is testing - in the hope of selling - an electric tractor for farm use. Frankly, I liked the presentation, and found the information interesting - it may even be interesting information to you reading this editorial. But the better presentation, the more important Earth-saving presentation would have been centered on ethanol fuel and how ethanol will save the industry that these journalists are all serving. At best, the electric tractors will be readily available in a few years. If time is of the essence - you know, to save the loss of billions of dollars and all life on planet Earth - then presentations about electric tractors are almost the last thing that an important consumer-influencing group like WAJ should be hearing about.
You may ask, "Does the automotive consumer-influencing community need to learn about ethanol?" The answer is an unequivocal "you bet your ass they do." They only know the negative lies spread about ethanol. To prove it, you should read the exchange I had a few months ago with some highly respected consumer-influencing automotive journalists. The complete exchange is contained in my essay "Plumbing the Depths of Ethanol Ignorance."
The automotive journalists that I wrote about are very good at being "car guys." They represent the overwhelming majority of people in the auto industry and they mirror the typical interests of the public. From the top to the bottom, from the influencers to the consumers, people like these guys are the hearts and minds of the automotive world. Their low understanding and little appreciation of ethanol fuel represents the automotive marketplace's general level of misunderstanding and unappreciation of ethanol fuel. The automotive industry is where the battleground for the ethanol fuel industry lies (not in the halls of Congress). You lose here, you lose everywhere. A determined public will make their own ethanol fuel, if needed, or they will blend their own E30, E40, E50 and E60 - but they have to be told the truth about ethanol so that they can make an informed decision.
No one, other than The Auto Channel, is regularly addressing, confronting, and educating consumers and consumer-influencers on the benefits of ethanol fuel. The Auto Channel is the only independent consumer-influencing media entity that is ready and capable of launching a program that might help to save billions of dollars and billions of living creatures (if the world is really being threatened by catastrophic man-made climate change). It can only happen with the support of ethanol's stakeholders. The alternative is sayonara, adieu, adios, arrivederci, au revoir, shalom, ciao, auf wiedersehen, and so long!
AUTO CENTRAL - September 10, 2021:
New Appeals Court Ruling Tightens The Noose Around The Neck of the Ethanol Industry
This is what happens when you put all your eggs in the hands of jackals
Yesterday, the United States Court of Appeals For The District Of Columbia Circuit denied a petition for rehearing regarding their decision in July, which vacated the 2019 regulation allowing year-round sales of E15 fuel. That decision struck a serious blow in the attempt to increase the level of ethanol in every gallon of gasoline sold in America. By denying the petition for a rehearing, a further serious emotional blow was leveled on the ethanol stake holders who had been hoping that the Biden Administration was prepared to help free America from a century of carnage caused by the petroleum oil industry.
Not only should E15 have been mandated for ubiquitous distribution ten years ago, after the Environmental Protection Agency cleared E15, our country should now be at least on par with Brazil's mandated use of E27, and then match Brazil's intention to move to E40 within the next few years (it's also Brazil's intention to move up to mandated E85 for all vehicles by 2050). If America is truly serious about reducing pollution (and all of the ancillary concerns over what pollution can cause), the move up the ladder to E15, E20, E25, E27, E40, etc., etc. should be a no-brainer.
In our opinion, ethanol industry stakeholders erred by allowing the wrong people to lead them down a booby-trapped garden path controlled by oil industry jackals. And now, faced with the onslaught of electric vehicle fantasies, America and the world may never get the opportunity to experience real energy independence as we will continue to be under the thumb of an OPEC dominated oil industry and then an electric vehicle industry owned by the Communist Chinese dictators. This is all covered in the July editorial we published titled "Evaluating The Cost Of A Renewed Summer E15 Ban."
God save us from losing all of our independence and liberties.