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Battelle Experts Forecast the Top Ten Energy Innovations for 2010

27 July 2000

    COLUMBUS, Ohio - Energy is a hot commodity these days. From yo-yo gas 
prices to predictions of electricity blackouts and the endless speculation on 
how deregulation will change the energy market, it's hard to ignore this topic. 
While we may not be zipping about from planet to planet and living the lifestyle 
of the Jetsons, we're in for some major changes during the next 10 years.

    Oil fields could be supplemented by fuel farms and gas stations will morph
into energy stations. We'll pay for electricity in a fashion similar to the
way we pay shifting rates for long distance service. Our household habits will
likely shift as people realize it's more economical to run the dishwasher
after midnight rather than after dinner.

    "We're on the cusp of some major, fundamental changes in energy. In fact,
it's already starting," said Dr. Steve Millett, Thought Leader and manager of
Battelle's forecasts.

    This is just one of the predictions made by a panel of energy experts from
Battelle and the national laboratories that it manages and co-manages for the
U.S. Department of Energy (including Pacific Northwest National Laboratory,
Brookhaven National Laboratory, Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the National
Renewable Energy Laboratory). The drivers behind the predicted energy
innovations include economics, R&D, worldwide environmental regulation,
consumer behavior and preferences, national energy policy, and liability and
legal issues.

    The expert focus group from Battelle, and the aforementioned labs, has
identified the Top Ten most economically impactful energy innovations by the
year 2010. They include:

    1.  A shifting energy industry structure: Substantial innovations in the
        energy industry and its energy technologies are occurring.
        Deregulation of the natural gas and electric utilities will continue,
        resulting in more competition and more mergers. Small, independent
        utilities will decline and be swept up into the emerging
        SuperUtilities. Oil companies will become energy companies, competing
        in both the mobile and stationary energy markets. New players, such as
        automobile companies, may emerge as formidable influences in the
        energy industry. "The convergence of the electric, gas,
        telecommunications and water industries likely will result in one-stop
        shopping," said Henry Cialone, VP and General Manager of Energy
        Products at Battelle.


    2.  Hybrid Vehicles: With $2 a gallon gas prices still fresh in the minds
        of consumers, the idea of hybrid cars doesn't sound so bad. Mileage of
        seventy-miles-per-gallon will create a lot of converts. The first
        generation of these vehicles is already here in a sporty two-seater
        from Honda. Hybrid vehicles use smaller, more efficient internal
        combustion engines and use power from electric batteries for an extra
        boost during acceleration. "U.S. automakers have produced a next-
        generation of hybrid concept cars that will pave the way to 80 mpg,
        five-passenger sedans," said Tony Schaffhauser of Oak Ridge National
        Laboratory. However, while making progress in the next 10 years, full
        transition may require decades.

    3.  Smart Energy Management Systems: In the way that computers and the
        Internet are radically changing our economy today, they'll change
        energy systems even more so in the future. Computers, the Internet and
        Global Positioning Systems will increase the efficiency of
        transportation. They'll reduce congestion and traffic delays and be
        used in heating, air conditioning, household appliances and business
        equipment. They also will play vital roles in efficiency of energy
        production and distribution systems such as pipelines, refineries,
        power plants and transmission lines.

    4.  Distributed Power Generation: Some experts are saying the current
        national power grid may not be able to meet skyrocketing demand. Power
        grids of this scale are on the way out. Major blackouts due to storms
        and overloading of the grid will become a thing of the past. "People
        and businesses are demanding more reliable power sources," said Bobi
        Garrett, from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden,
        Colo. "The economic cost of a power disruption in information-driven
        business like finance and e-commerce, is extremely high," she said.
        Power may be generated locally for neighborhoods and individual
        residences and businesses. This will be done via micro-turbines,
        internal combustion engines and fuel cells. There will be an increased
        used of natural gas because it's clean, cheap and available.

    5.  Fuel cells: There has been a lot of progress in fuel cell technology
        over the past 10 years, but much more needs to happen over the coming
        decade. Fuel cells will become increasingly popular for transportation
        and for portable and stationary power generation over the next decade.
        "These systems will provide power at competitive rates while
        drastically reducing the impact of power generation on the
        environment," said Don McConnell, Associate Lab Director for Energy
        Science and Technology at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory.
        Before being accepted by the public, fuel cells must be made smaller
        and cheaper.

    6.  Gas to Liquid Conversion: Scientists predict the development of
        chemical engineering processes to transform hydrocarbon compounds from
        gases to liquids. This will permit more flexible use and storage of
        fuels. One example is the conversion of natural gas to diesel fuel for
        transportation. "Gas to liquids technology offers an exciting,
        economically attractive opportunity to convert natural gas from remote
        locations-which otherwise would be wasted-into easily transported and
        inherently clean fuel," said Denny Stephens, Senior Research Scientist
        for Battelle's Energy Products.

    7.  Advanced Batteries: Batteries will continue a 20-year trend of
        advancements into the next decade. These next-generation batteries
        will be based on lithium polymer technology and have about three times
        as much energy capability as those currently on the market. These
        developments will play a more crucial role as we make the transition
        to hybrid and electric vehicles. Consumers also will see better
        batteries for laptop computers and cell phones.

    8.  Energy Farms: The use of bio-engineered crops for fuels will be
        hurried along by the genetic revolution that permits cultivation of
        crops to produce fuels such as ethanol. "We will grow gasoline, so to
        speak, to lessen our dependence on imported oil," Millett said. "With
        advances in DNA engineering, we will be able to grow energy as well as
        food crops."

    9.  Solar Energy: We've heard about this for a long time and it's still
        hanging tough. That's because it's considered the ultimate sustainable
        energy form. It's also difficult to capture and store large quantities
        in a cost-effective manner. But Battelle experts see substantial
        improvements over the next decade. "Advancements have been made using
        solar energy for the heating and cooling of buildings, and recent
        advances in the solar cell efficiency hold the promise of making
        widespread terrestrial application a reality," said NREL's Bobi
        Garrett. Progress is continually being made in the development of
        efficient photovoltaic cells.

    10. Methane Hydrate Crystal Mining: Geologists have discovered rich
        deposits of frozen natural gas crystals on the ocean bottom. "Tapping
        this reserve would be a quantum leap in our ability to provide energy
        for the future. Although some new government programs are exploring
        recovery methods and associated ramifications, there haven't been any
        commercial attempts to retrieve this vast reserve," said Gary Brawley,
        Program Manager in Battelle's Equipment Development and Mechanical
        Systems Department. It is expected that this energy source will emerge
        in the next decade to add to our natural gas production.

    Battelle focuses on technology development, technology commercialization
and laboratory management. Headquartered in Columbus, Ohio, Battelle has
annual revenues of nearly $1 billion and more than 60 locations throughout the
world.

    For more information contact Media Relations Manager Katy Delaney,
(614) 424-5544 or by e-mail at delaneyk@battelle.org