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Automotive Fuel Cells to Have Significant Impact on Industry

19 May 2000

'Automotive Fuel Cells to Have Significant Impact on Transportation Industry by End of Decade,' ABI Says

    OYSTER BAY, N.Y., May 18 Automotive fuel cells will have
nearly a 4% market share, with 608,000 vehicles by 2010, according to a new
study by Allied Business Intelligence.  Market penetration can rise as high as
1,215,000 fuel cell vehicles, which will represent 7.6% of the total US
Automotive Market, says ABI.  Fuel cell power will reach tens of thousands of
vehicles by 2003 to 2004.
    Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) fuel cells will dominate the fuel cell
market with 80% of all automotive fuel cells by 2010.
    "Fuel cell technology is so appealing that it will have an enormous impact
across all energy markets.  Besides PEM fuel cells, which have received
billions of dollars in research and development funding, niche technologies
will gain 5% to 10% market share of this multibillion dollar market," says ABI
Senior Analyst K. Atakan Ozbek, the author of the report.  "We will see
dramatic changes sooner than most people think, and that will lead to early
mass commercialization," says Ozbek.
    One of the major issues with automotive fuel cells is not the status of
the technology, but rather bringing down the costs with real manufacturing
capacity starting at 100,000 units.  A critical challenge facing fuel cell
developers is climbing "the learning curve" to achieve high volume production.
Currently, none of the fuel cell developers have the production capacity for
what is now being designed and built.  Mass production will be reached by the
end of the decade, when fuel cells will become fully price-competitive with
internal combustion engines.
    Following market penetration in the US, automotive fuel cells will gain
market share in Japan and the European Union, particularly in Germany.  Japan
may see as high as 4.5% fuel cell market penetration by 2010, compared to
3.7% in Europe.