Detroit Purchasing Managers Report October Deceleration -- Comerica Survey

28 October 1999

Detroit Purchasing Managers Report October Deceleration -- Comerica Survey

    DETROIT--Oct. 28, 1999--Members of the National Association of Purchasing Management-Metro Detroit (NAPM-MD), surveyed in October by Detroit-based Comerica Bank, reported a 2.0-point decline in overall business conditions from September for Southeast Michigan's industrial economy.
    Comerica's composite index stood at 54.5 in October, compared with 56.5 in September. A year earlier, the index stood at 61.1, reflecting the final catch-up stage from the 54-day strike at General Motors. The index is a seasonally-adjusted weighted average measure of new orders and production activity, employment, inventories, and promptness of supplier deliveries. It ranges from 0 to 100. A composite index below 50 generally means conditions are deteriorating; levels above 50 denote expansion.
    "The automotive sector of the local economy was clearly a drag in October," said David L. Littmann, chief economist with Comerica Bank. "In contrast, non-automotive survey respondents cited stronger output, inventories and employment, and they commented repeatedly on the shortage or absence of skilled labor." Littmann noted that both auto and non-auto respondents indicated the beginning of pricing pressures related to the stronger yen.


                      AUTO          NON-AUTO          TOTAL
                    SEP   OCT      SEP    0CT       SEP   OCT
NAPM-MD
Composite Index     54.0  43.0     57.5   59.3      56.5   54.5

 Production         35.0  41.7     60.4   67.5      52.9   59.5
 New Orders         60.0  44.7     58.7   54.5      59.1   51.6
 Inventories        65.0  39.5     52.1   63.1      55.9   55.7
 Employment         60.0  33.3     47.9   56.5      51.5   50.0
 Vendor Performance 60.0  55.6     68.8   54.5      66.2   54.8
 Prices             65.0  58.3     62.5   56.1      63.2   56.8

Weighting           29.4  29.2     70.6   70.8      100.0 100.0

Comerica's composite index is based on surveys of local purchasing managers belonging to the 500-member National Association of Purchasing Management-Metro Detroit.
Comerica Bank, the largest bank in Michigan, is a subsidiary of Comerica Incorporated , a multi-state financial services provider headquartered in Detroit, with banking subsidiaries in Michigan, California and Texas, banking operations in Florida, and businesses in nine other states. Comerica also operates banking subsidiaries in Canada and Mexico. Comerica is celebrating its 150th anniversary in 1999.