Vehicle Makers' Use of Aluminum Body Sheet is Limited
17 September 1999
American Iron and Steel Institute: High Costs, Alternative Technologies Will Limit Vehicle Makers' Use of Aluminum Body Sheet, Says Former ALCOA Exec
Castings Growth Will Continue; Aluminum Sheet Intensive Vehicles Will Account
For Under One Percent of Vehicle Production Over Next 25 Years
DETROIT, Sept. 16 -- The following was released by the
American Iron and Steel Institute:
The high cost of constructing automotive body structures of aluminum,
coupled with advancements in technologies for engines, transmissions, tires,
high strength steel and aerodynamics, will limit the use of aluminum body
sheet by vehicle makers, according to a consultant with Ducker Research
Company, Inc. of Bloomfield Hills, Mich.
Speaking at the Metal Bulletin 14th International Aluminum Conference in
Montreal yesterday, Richard A. Schultz, director of Aluminum Projects, Ducker
Research Company, said that the cost premium for aluminum body structures with
closures (doors, hoods, etc.) compared to those made of steel "ranges from
$4,600 per unit at low volume to $1,400 per unit for volumes as high as
500,000 units spread over five years.
(Ford Motor Co. recently canceled its plans for a high volume, aluminum-
body sports wagon because of its concerns about the high cost of building such
a vehicle with aluminum sheet.)
Schultz, who was president of Alcoa Automotive Structures before joining
Ducker Research last year, predicted that by 2010 improvements in powertrain,
high strength steel and other technologies "will begin to shift the fuel
economy thrust away from the need for high-cost (speaker's emphasis)
lightweighting. Weight will always be important, but the cost OEMs are
willing to pay to save a pound of weight will approach zero.
"The major reason (why there are no aluminum sheet intensive vehicles
planned or in production in North America today) is that the improvements in
fuel economy and emissions reduction from aluminum body structures and
closures are relatively small compared to the cost of attainment."
The high cost of using stamped aluminum sheet for body structures and
closures results from high material costs and a range of manufacturing issues.
According to Schultz, stamped aluminum sheet assemblies are significantly more
expensive than steel assemblies because:
* Tooling development is more costly.
* Aluminum slivers cause surface defects and build up on tooling.
* Aluminum is more susceptible to handling damage.
* Joining aluminum by spot welding, adhesive bonding and/or rivet bonding
is more expensive.
* The value of aluminum scrap is a fraction of the cost of in-coming
material.
Even if aluminum sheet were to cost as little as $0.95 per pound
(currently it is about $1.40 per pound), the cost premium for aluminum body
structures still would range from $4,325 at low volume to $1,125 at high
volume. Regardless of the initial material cost for aluminum sheet, the costs
associated with manufacturing an aluminum body will remain prohibitively high.
At the same time that aluminum sheet is suffering a range of cost
problems, Schultz said, the use of steel sheet continues to become even more
attractive because:
* New steel bodies will weigh at least ten percent less than current
units (the new BMW 3 Series steel body contains 50 percent high strength steel
and only weighs 500 pounds).
* New steel closure panels will weigh five to ten percent less than
current steel closures.
* The total cost for the steel required to make a body structure with
closures will decline over time.
Regarding weight reduction, Schultz said, "steel already is -- and will
continue -- taking more steel out of the body structure than aluminum ever
will."
Schultz forecasted that total aluminum usage will grow from the current
248 pounds to a maximum of 375 pounds per vehicle in 2015 and then begin to
decline. He predicted that the proportion of castings in the mix will remain
virtually unchanged for at least the next 10 years from its current
approximately 79 percent.
"Sheet for body structures and closure panels will only represent 4.3
percent of total (aluminum) shipments over the next ten years," he said. This
will represent just 15 pounds of aluminum body sheet per vehicle, compared to
about 800 pounds of steel body sheet per vehicle, on average.
"(This) means that the long awaited shift to a higher share for mill
products such as sheet and extrusions simply is not going to happen," said
Schultz. "Thus, the next ten years will be a continuation of the current boom
for castings, but they will be a disappointment for auto body sheet."
Schultz said that aluminum intensive vehicles will account for "less than
one percent of total vehicle production over the next 25 years."
In his speech, Schultz criticized the aluminum industry for exaggerating
its claims for secondary weight savings, which is the weight that engineers
can remove from other components because of the lower weight of an aluminum
body and closures. "We believe that using large amounts of secondary weight
savings to inflate the fuel savings for aluminum bodies is disingenuous," said
Schultz.
He also chided the aluminum industry for using inappropriate data for CO2
emissions. "In any comparison of an AIV (aluminum intensive vehicle) with a
steel alternative, the CO2 comparison should be based on the values for
aluminum sheet and steel sheet, not steel sheet versus some mixed product
called 'auto aluminum,'" which includes 72 percent castings made primarily
from recycled aluminum.
Schultz offered his interpretation of data from a July 1999 report from
the Union of Concerned Scientists. "According to the report, an improvement
of 15 miles per gallon could be obtained at a cost of less than $1,000 if all
the latest technology for engines, transmissions, tires, high strength steel
and aerodynamics were installed in a Ford Explorer," he said. This is "much
less (cost) for each mpg of improvement than the cost of using aluminum body
structure and closures that only yield two to three mpg."
American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) is a non-profit association of
North American companies engaged in the iron and steel industry. The
Institute comprises 47 member companies, including integrated and electric
furnace steelmakers, and 178 associate and affiliate members who are suppliers
to or customers of the steel industry. For a broader look at steel and its
applications, the Institute has its own website at http://www.steel.org .
The Automotive Applications Committee (AAC) is a subcommittee of the
Market Development Committee of AISI and focuses on advancing the use of steel
in the highly competitive automotive market. With offices and staff located
in Detroit, cooperation between the automobile and steel industries has been
significant to its success. This industry cooperation resulted in the
formation of the Auto/Steel Partnership, a consortium of DaimlerChrysler, Ford
and General Motors and the member companies of the AAC.
This release and other steel-related information are available for viewing
and downloading at American Iron and Steel Institute/Automotive Applications
Committee's website at http://www.autosteel.org . Full text of Mr. Schultz's
speech will be available on the site September 20.
Automotive Applications Committee member companies:
AK Steel Corporation
Bethlehem Steel Corporation
Dofasco Inc.
Ispat Inland Inc.
LTV Steel Company
National Steel Corporation
Rouge Steel Company
Stelco Inc.
US Steel Group, a unit of USX Corporation
WCI Steel, Inc.
Weirton Steel Corporation