Honey I Shrunk the Die: The Impact on Semiconductors
10 February 1999
Honey I Shrunk the Die: The Impact on Semiconductors
PHOENIX--Feb. 9, 1999--Semico Research Corp released a comprehensive analysis of the relationship between semiconductor device shrinks and overcapacity and the effect on the semiconductor equipment industry.
The analysis concludes that the economic recovery of the industry will not occur in earnest until 2000, following the semiconductor manufacturing recovery by 4 or more quarters.
With shrinks of the DRAM memory cell, possible die per wafer value is doubling at an ever-increasing rate. Cell size area reduction is enabled by equipment and process technology improvements.
When the industry was at 0.35 micron design rules and a cell size of 1.75 millimeters squared, a wafer could produce 100 64Mb die per wafer. Just prior to 0.25 micron design rules, cell area decreased to 0.95 millimeters squared and allowed 200 die per wafer. Recently, cell areas on 64Mb devices were estimated at 0.50 millimeters squared producing more than 400 die per wafer.
From a manufacturing perspective this trend is required for survival, but as a result is effectively creating the equivalent of another $1.5B factory every time a doubling of die per wafer occurs. For every fab not built, semiconductor equipment lost revenues can be measured in the hundreds of millions-dollars range. This is illustrated by the SEMI book-to-bill ratio currently at 0.56:1.
Microprocessors as measured by transistors per area follow a trend similar to that of DRAM; however, the trend is less pronounced but none-the-less prevalent when plotted as devices per wafers. The result is the still the same -- no factories are being built.
Equipment segments exhibiting the highest growth until recovery will be predominately enabling technologies closely tied to sub 0.25 micron lithography and advanced processing of transistor or interconnect segments of semiconductor devices.
In addition to lithography, enabling technologies include tools which allow advanced CVD and alternative spin-on techniques, chemical mechanical planarization (CMP), rapid thermal processing (RTP), and high aspect ratio etch.
Purchasing behavior of semiconductor companies is expected to be very selective and incremental only. Capacity purchase of capital equipment will not resume until semiconductor companies return to profitability.
Further information about the study, and other products and services is available at the Semico Research Corp. website WWW.SEMICO.COM, or by contacting Semico Research, at 602/997-0337.