Southeast Asian Light Vehicle Production to Drop 38 Percent in 1998
25 February 1998
Southeast Asian Light Vehicle Production to Drop 38 Percent in 1998; Thailand and Malaysia to Lead Rebound
BANGKOK, Feb. 25 -- Light vehicle production in Southeast
Asia's four major vehicle producing countries - Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia,
and the Philippines - will reach 718,000 units in 1998, a 38 percent decline
from the 1.17 million vehicles produced in the region in 1997.
By 2002, however, light vehicle production (light vehicles are defined as
passenger cars, pickup trucks, sport-utility vehicles, Asian-utility vehicles,
and vans) in the region will reach 1.49 million units, an all-time record.
These conclusions are part of the ASEAN Automotive Production Outlook,
1998-2002, a vehicle production forecast published in February 1998 by
Bangkok-based Automotive Resources Asia Ltd. (ARA).
The 140-page report -- produced over an eight-month period beginning in
July 1997 -- is a tool for automakers and automotive parts suppliers to plan
their production strategies for the next five years.
Southeast Asia has been among the fastest-growing economic regions in the
world over the past five years, with region-wide annual GDP growth rates
exceeding seven percent. Combined with a population of 350 million people and
a person-to-vehicle ratio of nearly 25:1, the region has attracted more than
$7 billion in investment from automotive manufacturers and component makers
from Japan, Europe and the United States since 1993.
The report examines every assembly plant and every light vehicle model
produced in Southeast Asia, historical market trends, regional government
automotive policies, and current economic conditions to formulate its
production outlook.
Other report conclusions include:
-- Countries
Thailand and Malaysia combined will produce 981,000 light vehicles, or 65
percent of the 1.49 million vehicles produced in 2002. Thailand and Malaysia
will be the region's biggest exporters, with 30 percent of Thai and Malay
production earmarked for export in 2002.
-- Imports
Despite a global trend toward market liberalization, vehicle imports into
ASEAN will only be 7-8 percent in 2002. High import duties (as much as 60
percent) will continue to compel automakers to produce vehicles locally.
-- Brands
Japanese-branded vehicles will account for 76 percent of all light
vehicles produced in ASEAN in 1998. By 2002, the Japanese production share
will shrink, but not by much, as Japanese brands will account for 66 percent
of all vehicles produced in the region.
Toyota Motor Corp, Mitsubishi Motor Corp., and Malaysia's Proton National
Car will be the three biggest producers in ASEAN in 2002.
US automakers -- Ford Motor Co. in particular -- will make the biggest
gains during the five-year period, with combined production jumping from just
one percent in 1998 to nine percent in 2002.
-- Models
Of the 1.49 million vehicles that will be produced in 2002, only 11 models
will have production in excess of 40,000 units. (The top five models include
the Proton Wira, Toyota Hilux, Isuzu Spark, Mitsubishi L200 Strada, and the
all-new Ford/Mazda pickup to be produced in Thailand.) Combined, these 11
models will account for 934,000 units of production, or 62 percent of all
light vehicles produced in the region in 2002.
For more information about Automotive Resources Asia Ltd. or the ASEAN
Automotive Production Outlook, 1998-2002, please fax Ms. Wannee of the Market
Research Department, ARA Bangkok at (662) 264-2051, or send an e-mail to
<ara@comnet.ksc.net.th>.
SOURCE Automotive Resources Asia Ltd.