Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index Rises in June as Auto Market Continues To Be Impacted by Tariff-Driven Volatility

The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index climbs to 208.5, up 6.3% year over year and 1.6% month over month, reflecting seasonal strength despite tariff-driven volatility.
Retail demand remains solid as off-lease supply continues to tighten, supporting higher used-vehicle values.
The used-vehicle market is showing signs of normalization and resilience, outperforming the new-vehicle segment in terms of stability.

ATLANTA, July 8, 2025 -- Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were higher in June compared to May. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) increased to 208.5, representing a 6.3% year-over-year increase and a 1.6% rise above May levels. The seasonal adjustment forced the index higher in the month, as non-seasonally adjusted values fell more than usual following the volatility induced by the tariff announcement. The non-adjusted price in June decreased 1.1% compared to May, which now makes the unadjusted average price higher by 5.1% year over year.

"Wholesale appreciation trends have been more volatile over Q2 as tariffs really impacted new sales and supply, which impacted the used marketplace as well," said Jeremy Robb, senior director of Economic and Industry Insights at Cox Automotive. "The Manheim index has generally been rising since last June, and we typically see the strongest changes for the year in the second quarter as the 'spring bounce' comes to an end. As we move through the second half of 2025, it's likely that some of the reported strength in the market tapers, as the year-over-year comparisons are tougher in the back half of the year. Even so, retail sales continue to run a bit hotter than prior years, and off-lease supply into the market is still on a downward path, two factors which should be fairly supportive of higher values as we move onward."

Used-Vehicle Market Demonstrates Remarkable Stability Amid Shifting Supply Dynamics
The used-vehicle market continues to demonstrate remarkable stability and resilience, even as the broader automotive landscape experiences shifts in pricing and supply. While the new-vehicle segment has seen more pronounced swings, the used market has remained consistently strong.

"Historically, the used market has been incredibly consistent; but the pandemic disrupted much of that consistency, and starting in mid-2020, we saw much more volatility than we'd normally expect," said Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke. "What we are seeing in the Manheim Index over the course of the first half of this year suggests we could finally be out of that pattern. Demand has remained steady, but the real change has been in supply. With the acceleration of the new-vehicle market in early Q2, an uptick in trade-ins naturally followed, increasing used inventory. The change in supply-side dynamics is driving the return to normal for the used-vehicle market, and this stability is what we expect to see in the second half of 2025."

Weekly MMR Trends Show Elevated Depreciation
In June, Manheim Market Report (MMR) values experienced price declines for each week of the month, with the largest weekly decline occurring in the final week. In that final week, MMR values fell by 0.6%, which was higher than weekly rates earlier in the month. Over the last four weeks, the Three-Year-Old Index decreased an aggregate of 1.3%, higher than normally seen. Those same weeks delivered an average decrease of just 0.6% between 2014 and 2019, indicating depreciation trends were elevated and influenced by higher inventory levels and the volatility from the tariffs over the last quarter.

Over the month, daily MMR Retention, which is the average difference in price relative to the current MMR, averaged 99.2%, meaning market prices stayed below MMR values this month, yet they were higher than May levels. Against last year, valuation models were down by 0.1 percentage points (10 bps) for MMR retention, though they are higher than June levels seen in 2022 and 2023. The average daily sales conversion rate rose to 57.8% in June, an increase of over 1 percentage point against last month and higher than normally seen at this time of year. For comparison, the daily sales conversion rate averaged 53.1% in June over the last three years.

Luxury Segment Leads Year-Over-Year Price Gains
Almost all major market segments were higher for seasonally adjusted prices year over year in June, with the exception of compact cars. Compared to June 2024, the luxury segment rose the most for the fifth month in a row, increasing by 8.8%, with SUVs coming in the second and higher by 6.0% over the last year. Underperforming the industry-wide increase of 6.3%, both mid-size sedans and trucks increased 2.8%, and compact cars showed the worst performance, coming in down 0.1% against last year. All segments were higher compared to the previous month, with the luxury segment rising by 1.2%, while the trucks segment was higher by 1.1%. Both compact cars and SUVs were higher by 1.0%, while mid-size sedans rose 0.8% in the period.

Used EV Values Rebound Strongly Year Over Year
Looking at the market by powertrain, electric vehicle (EV) values are showing significant gains compared to last year, partly due to the depressed values seen during the comparison period. Wholesale EV values experienced steep declines in the second half of 2023 and the first half of 2024, reaching their lowest point since Q3 2021 in June 2024. Since then, EV values have rebounded, with year-over-year appreciation trends outpacing those of non-EVs for the past three months. In June, EV values were up 12.1% year over year, while non-EVs rose by 5.6%. Month over month, EV values increased by 1.5%, slightly ahead of the 1.4% gain for non-EVs.

This rebound is also supported by a broader shift in the used-EV market. Robb noted, "The used-EV market is becoming more diverse, moving beyond a concentration in just a few models like the Nissan Leaf and Tesla Model 3. This growing diversity has contributed to improved values and a more mature used-EV landscape."

The used-EV market is set up for a potentially impressive Q3. "With the EV tax credits for new and used vehicles now set to be eliminated at the end of Q3 and supply levels currently tightening, we could see further strength in the used-EV segments in the coming months as consumers rush to take advantage of the credit before it expires," Robb said.

Retail Used-Vehicle Sales Dip in June, While Inventory Remains Stable
Assessing retail vehicle sales based on observed changes in units tracked by vAuto, initial estimates of retail used-vehicle sales in June were down 1.5% compared to May but up year over year by 2%. The average retail listing price for a used vehicle increased 0.3% over the last four weeks.

Using estimates of retail used days' supply based on vAuto data, an initial assessment indicates June ended at 45 days' supply, unchanged from 45 days at the end of May but down one day from June 2024 at 46 days.

New-Vehicle Sales Decline Sharply From May
New-vehicle sales in June declined 4.2% from last year, and volume was down sharply month over month, falling 14.2% from an elevated level in May, a month that had continued to be influenced by the tariff enactment. The June sales pace, or seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), came in at 15.3 million, up 0.3 million from last year's pace and lower than the 15.6 million level in May.

Combined sales into large rental, commercial, and government fleets declined 3.8% year over year in June, as a smaller increase in rental fleet sales was offset by continued weakness in government and commercial. Including an estimate for fleet deliveries into dealer and manufacturer channels, the remaining new retail sales were estimated to be down 3.0% from last year, leading to an estimated retail SAAR of 12.9 million, down from 13.4 million in May but up from 12.2 million last June. Fleet share was estimated to be 17.6%, down from last year's 18.6% share.

Cox Automotive Revisits Used and Wholesale Vehicle Market Forecast and Outlook for 2025
As announced on June 25 in its Mid-Year Review, Cox Automotive has revisited its 2025 forecasts. The used market is proving to be much more stable, as expected, with consumers opting for used vehicles due to uncertainty about tariffs remaining at current levels. Cox Automotive projects that used-vehicle sales will reach 20.1 million in 2025, which is an estimated 1.2% increase compared to 2024. Sales growth is expected to remain muted, as retail and wholesale supply will continue to be constrained in the coming year due to lower production during the pandemic and fewer lease maturities returning to the market.

With the increased pressure on the cost of new units, used-vehicle values, as measured by the MUVVI, are expected to experience more appreciation in 2025 than seen over the last few years. Before the announcement of tariffs, the forecast had the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index ending December 2025 up 1.4% from the end of 2024, slightly below the long-term average rise of 2.3%. In March, the forecast was revised upward to an increase of 2.1%, due to the condition of the used retail supply and the anticipation that a greater number of consumers will shift from purchasing new vehicles to used ones. Given the volatility observed in the market over the last quarter, coupled with stronger year-over-year comparisons in the latter half of 2025, the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index is now projected to be 1.8% higher year over year in December 2025, just below its long-term run rate.

Read the commentary for more perspective on the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index performance in June and Q2.