Automotive News From Cox Newsroom - November 2024 Auto Sales
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An uptick in retail momentum, our Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke suggested late yesterday, is likely driven in part by a post-election, consumer mindset shift—the move from "it's better to wait" to "better buy now." If experience is our teacher, the future Trump administration will sound a lot like the prior Trump administration, where ongoing trade skirmishes roil the markets and stress the when-to-buy calculation that in-market shoppers face every day.
Goodbye, national EV tax credits? Possible. Shutting the leasing loopholes? Maybe. Tariffs on vehicles from Mexico and Canada? Could be. Or maybe not. The future is unknown, but for in-market buyers none of the known unknowns suggest a wait-and-see attitude is a winning strategy. Best to buy now.
Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough: "I think the consumer may surprise us a bit in the coming months. There may be more pent-up demand than we imagined, as consumers put the national election behind them and take stock of the better loan rates, improved financing deals and a lot more incentives. After a relatively slow summer, the retail market seem to be coming alive at year's end."
In October, average incentive spend in the market was up 60% year over year and at the highest point since early 2021. November likely saw even more discounting: Our formal look at pricing and incentives will be out next week. A November new-vehicle SAAR near 16.5 million would be the strongest pace in more than 3 years. With growing inventories and additional discounts, it's possible that this month could be (sorry) a December to Remember.
On Tuesday, December 17th, our Economic and Industry Insights team will be holding its final conference call of the year. We will have a review of 2024 market performance and our look ahead into 2025. We hope you will join us. If you have not already, get on the list with an RSVP HERE. We will send you materials ahead of the call, and we look forward to hearing your questions as well.
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