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Cox Automotive Leaves 2024 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast Unchanged as September Volume Drops; Year-to-Date Sales Up Less Than 1% Compared to 2023


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  • With fewer selling days month over month and year over year, September's sales volume is forecast to be lower by 16.1% versus last month and fall 11.0% from one year ago.
  • The new-vehicle sales pace in September is expected to finish near 15.9 million, up 0.1 million from last September's 15.8 million pace and up from August's 15.1 million.
  • Cox Automotive holds its full year forecast steady at 15.7 million, with the new-vehicle sales pace in Q3 expected to be 15.6 million, a decline from Q2.

ATLANTA, Sept. 25, 2024 -- Gauging the true success of new-vehicle sales this month will be especially challenging due to the market calendar. New-vehicle sales in September are expected to tumble more than 16% from August and 11% from last September. Still, the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), or sales pace, is expected to rise to 15.9 million, up from August's 15.1 million level and slightly higher than last September's 15.8 million pace.

According to Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive: "The September sales pace is expected to improve from a rather slow August, maintaining the trend of large swings we've witnessed this year. With the election season fully upon us, more volatility seems likely through the end of the year. However, the recent interest rate cut will help household finances, and automakers are being more aggressive with discounts, so we remain optimistic that new-vehicle sales could improve marginally through the final quarter of 2024."  

The September new-vehicle sales data will be influenced heavily by the large differences in the number of selling days. There are only 23 selling days this September, five fewer than August's 28 days and three fewer than last September. Significant statistical adjustments help make comparisons more accurate, but they are still challenging.

Healthy new-vehicle inventory and higher incentives are helping maintain sales. New-vehicle sales incentives have been increasing through 2024, with August incentives estimated by Kelley Blue Book to be at the highest level since the first half of 2021. New-vehicle transaction prices have also been under pressure, helping improve new-vehicle affordability. Both dynamics – higher incentive and continued price pressure – are expected to positively influence September's sales volume.

September 2024 U.S. New-Vehicle Sales Forecast


Sales Forecast1

Market Share

Segment

Sep-24

Sep-23

Aug-24

YOY%

MOM%

Sep-24

Aug-24

MOM

Mid-Size Car

63,000

81,298

74,572

-22.5 %

-15.5 %

5.3 %

5.3 %

0.0 %

Compact Car

95,000

93,909

109,872

1.2 %

-13.5 %

8.0 %

7.8 %

0.2 %

Compact SUV/Crossover

205,000

234,872

244,555

-12.7 %

-16.2 %

17.2 %

17.3 %

0.0 %

Full-Size Pickup Truck

165,000

180,020

192,904

-8.3 %

-14.5 %

13.9 %

13.6 %

0.3 %

Mid-Size SUV/Crossover

190,000

216,899

230,307

-12.4 %

-17.5 %

16.0 %

16.2 %

-0.3 %

Other Segments

472,000

529,650

565,327

-10.9 %

-16.5 %

39.7 %

39.9 %

-0.2 %

Grand Total

1,190,000

1,336,648

1,417,537

-11.0 %

-16.1 %




Cox Automotive Industry Insights data 

Honda, With a 10% Sales Gain in Q3, Holds Rank as a Top 5 Seller; Stellantis Struggles 
New-vehicle sales volumes in Q3 are forecast by Cox Automotive to be lower by 2.1% year over year and also lower compared to the second quarter of 2024. Sales declines at GM, Toyota and Stellantis have led the market lower. Year-to-date New-vehicle sales are expected to end Q3 higher by less than 1%. Cox Automotive's full-year forecast for new-vehicle sales remains unchanged at 15.7 million, higher year over year by less than 2%.

Added Chesbrough, "Honda is expected to see even more growth this quarter, thanks to another strong quarter of CRV and Accord sales. So far this year, Honda has gained nearly 1% market share and has moved up into the Top 5 in U.S. sales among the major automakers, knocking Stellantis down to No. 6."

Q3 and Year-To-Date 2024 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast1

Manufacturer

Q3 2024

Q3 2023

Q2 2024

YOY%

YTD 2024

YTD 2023

YOY%

YTD Share

General Motor

648,043

669,234

691,680

-3.2 %

1,929,778

1,957,815

-1.4 %

16.4 %

Toyota

547,460

590,296

621,549

-7.3 %

1,734,106

1,628,817

6.5 %

14.7 %

Ford Motor Co.

509,310

497,108

532,466

2.5 %

1,546,591

1,496,874

3.3 %

13.1 %

Hyundai Group

433,109

430,302

438,602

0.7 %

1,250,914

1,250,482

0.0 %

10.6 %

Honda Motor Co.

375,281

339,143

356,457

10.7 %

1,065,562

970,675

9.8 %

9.0 %

Stellantis

301,293

380,563

344,993

-20.8 %

978,827

1,183,538

-17.3 %

8.3 %

Nissan Mitsubishi

236,927

239,074

259,448

-0.9 %

777,513

764,785

1.7 %

6.6 %

Subaru

165,199

163,131

169,447

1.3 %

487,642

467,220

4.4 %

4.1 %

VW

166,718

167,279

170,603

-0.3 %

477,077

456,746

4.5 %

4.0 %

Tesla

152,829

156,621

164,264

-2.4 %

457,280

493,513

-7.3 %

3.9 %

Mazda

116,786

88,834

102,383

31.5 %

319,272

272,617

17.1 %

2.7 %

Mercedes-Benz

91,991

90,011

95,596

2.2 %

270,210

261,731

3.2 %

2.3 %

BMW

78,761

91,849

97,135

-14.2 %

266,740

277,132

-3.7 %

2.3 %

Others

73,406

76,334

76,388

-3.8 %

225,572

203,215

11.0 %

1.9 %

NATION

3,897,112

3,979,779

4,121,011

-2.1 %

11,787,083

11,685,160

0.9 %

100.0 %

Cox Automotive Industry Insights data 

While the overall new-vehicle market is forecast to be slightly higher year over year at the end of Q3, the gains have mostly been on the fleet and leasing sides of the business. Retail purchases year-to-date in 2024 – vehicles bought with cash or via an auto loan and representing nearly 60% of all sales – are forecast to be lower by 4% compared to 2023. Fleet sales year to date in 2024 are tracking higher by about 7% year over year, while leasing is higher by 24%, thanks in large part to strong electric vehicle (EV) and plug-in hybrid lease offers.

All percentages are based on raw volume, not daily selling rate.

About Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive is the world's largest automotive services and technology provider. Fueled by the largest breadth of first-party data fed by 2.3 billion online interactions a year, Cox Automotive tailors leading solutions for car shoppers, auto manufacturers, dealers, lenders and fleets. The company has 29,000+ employees on five continents and a portfolio of industry-leading brands that include Autotrader®, Kelley Blue Book®, Manheim®, vAuto®, Dealertrack®, NextGear Capital™, CentralDispatch® and FleetNet America®. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately owned, Atlanta-based company with $22 billion in annual revenue. Visit coxautoinc.com or connect via @CoxAutomotive on X, CoxAutoInc on Facebook or Cox-Automotive-Inc on LinkedIn.

SOURCE Cox Automotive