Cox Auto News Wrap-up

COX AUTOMOTIVE FORECAST: WITH NEW-VEHICLE INVENTORY AT A TWO-YEAR HIGH, AUGUST AUTO SALES EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEARLY 19% YEAR OVER YEAR

New-vehicle sales, when announced on Friday by automakers, are expected to once again show big gains over last year but a slight decline in the sales pace from last month. A key reason for the volume gain is new-vehicle inventory hitting its highest level in more than two years. Stronger fleet sales are also expected to support higher sales volumes.
 
The August seasonally adjusted annual rate, or SAAR, is expected to finish near 15.4 million, slightly below July’s 15.7 million level. Meanwhile, August’s sales volume is expected to show a nearly 19% gain over last year’s supply-limited market and is expected to rise more than 3% from last month.
 
According to Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive: “The supply recovery continues to improve across the country, and this is leading to the market’s sales gains this year. In addition, the return of supply is also bringing back more discounting from manufacturers. But rising interest rates, and their impact on affordability, remain strong headwinds against a more robust vehicle market.”

Read the press release for more details and how the major segments performed.

CONSUMERS KEEP SPENDING DESPITE DECLINING SENTIMENT 

Despite feeling less confident, the consumer is playing a vital role in keeping the U.S. economy on a growth track. Both the Index of Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan and Morning Consult’s Index of Consumer Sentiment have measured declining consumer confidence in August.

However, in the Auto Market Report video published this morning, Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke stated that Verisk data show spending has accelerated, helped by the back-to-school season.
 
Read the Auto Market Weekly Summary and watch the Auto Market Report video for more data and insights from Smoke on new and used retail sales and inventory, auto financing and Cox Automotive leading indicators.

WHOLESALE USED-VEHICLE PRICES INCREASE MARGINALLY IN FIRST HALF OF AUGUST

Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix-, mileage-, and seasonally adjusted basis) increased 0.1% from July in the first 15 days of August. The midmonth Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index rose to 212.0, which was down 7.8% from the full month of August 2022.
 
The seasonal adjustment diminished the increase. The non-adjusted price change in the first half of August increased 0.7% compared to July, while the unadjusted price was down 7.6% year over year.
 
Check out the Data Point for updates on Manheim Market Report values and major market segments, and register to attend the Q3 Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index call on Friday, Oct. 6.

WITH FORD ON TOP, TESLA AND RIVIAN FACE UPHILL BATTLE IN ELECTRIC PICKUP TRUCK CONSIDERATION

New research from Cox Automotive suggests that consumers shopping for electric pickup trucks are not all that different from their ICE-considering counterparts. In a third round of research, Cox Automotive found that the Ford F-150 Lightning is on top for shopper consideration when compared to its EV counterparts from Chevy, GMC (Hummer), Ram, Rivian and Tesla. The research indicates that shoppers are more likely to consider full-size EV trucks from brands they know or currently own.

“Ford’s full-size pickup has long been the best-selling, best example of the genre, so perhaps it is no surprise that the F-150 Lightning arrives with a leg up on the competition,” noted Vanessa Ton, senior manager of Market and Customer Research at Cox Automotive. “Our studies continue to show the importance of brand strength, and that is particularly true in the full-size pickup truck segment, where brand loyalty often runs deep and fierce. This fact makes it particularly challenging for brands like Tesla and Rivian, both newcomers to the pickup segments.”

Check out the Data Point to see how shoppers rank full-size EV pickups on a number of factors important to them, including projected range, driving performance, styling and price.

REGISTER NOW TO ATTEND THE Q3 INDUSTRY INSIGHTS CALL

The Q3 Cox Automotive Industry Insights and Sales Forecast call will be hosted Tuesday, Sept. 26, at 11 a.m. EDT, shortly before the auto industry closes the book on the third quarter.
 
In the upcoming webinar, Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke and the Economic and Industry Insights team will share valuable data and insights regarding the performance of the consumer, industry and economy in the third quarter. Additionally, the team will review our forecasts and provide an outlook for the year-end.
 
If you can’t make the live webinar, be sure to register anyway, and we’ll send you the recording after the event.