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Cox Automotive December 2022 Auto Sales Forecast


The Cox Automotive Industry Insights team is sharing their December 2022 auto sales forecast this morning. New-vehicle inventory levels continue to improve, and auto sales this month are forecast to reach 1.27 million units, a result that would place December among the strongest months of the year for sales. (Volume in March, according to our Kelley Blue Book team, was 1.27 million as well.)

The forecast of a "strong" finish is relative though. In the past decade, only 2021 had lower December sales, and typically the market sees more than 1.5 million deals in the final month. We are closing out a year with the lowest volume in a decade as well. Total sales in 2022 are expected to finish below 14 million – the last time the U.S. auto industry was under 14 million was 2011, as the market emerged from the Great Recession. 

The full forecast has been posted in the Newsroom.  

Are Rising Repos a Reason to Worry? 
Before we ran off for the holiday, there was some online chatter about rising auto loan defaults and the potential for a flood of repos in 2023. And indeed, both are on the rise. Our Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke noticed the trend as well, and notes, "Through any economic cycle, increases in defaults and repossessions are a normal, expected occurrence."

The U.S. economy is going through a cycle and high interest rates are a drag on the auto business. But Smoke does not expect defaults and repos to be the headline next year. You can read his reasoning here: Don't Panic! 

And speaking of headlines for next year, in case you missed our 10 Predictions for 2023, they are available for review, in the Cox Automotive Newsroom. 

Thanks for rolling with us in 2022. We look forward to hearing from you in 2023. 

Mark Schirmer
Director | Corporate Communications
Looking to hit the ground running in 2023? The Cox Automotive team is hosting two calls the week of January 9th. Feel free to join!
January 9th at 11:00 am ET: The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index Quarterly Conference Call. More details and RSVP here

January 12th at 11:00 am ET: Our 2023 Cox Automotive Industry Insights and Forecast Call. More details and RSVP here