Auto News Newsletter

Welcome to From the Newsroom, a roundup of news from Cox Automotive and perspectives from its analysts and experts on topics dominating the automotive industry.

Today’s newsletter is arriving a bit later than usual so we can share the not-so-scary Cox Automotive October sales forecast. When confirmed next week, October U.S. auto sales are expected to show an increased selling pace compared to last month and last year. October’s sales volume is expected to be very similar to every other month since August 2021 – roughly 1.1 million units – delivering a sales pace, or seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), of 14.3 million for October.

In the Auto Market Report video published this morning, Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke notes vehicle sales trends are indicating a slowing in the used-vehicle market. He said: “The key concern is the continued increase in interest rates. We now have the average used-vehicle loan rate above 16%, which is a level we haven’t seen in more than 15 years.”

The Cox Automotive Industry Insights team is still uncovering interesting findings in Q3 data. In addition to our 10 takeaways from the quarter, we published a look at electrified vehicle sales, and quarterly U.S. market performance reports for Ford Motor Company, General Motors and Hyundai Motor Company.

Since the last newsletter, Cox Automotive reported updates on new-vehicle average transaction prices, according to Kelley Blue Book, plus inventory levels and listing prices for both the new and used markets, based on vAuto data. For insights into the used retail and wholesale markets, check out the latest Manheim Market Insights video from Kevin Chartier, vice president of Manheim Market Insights, as well as the mid-month October Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index.

We hope you find this selection of articles informative and helpful. Visit the Cox Automotive Newsroom for the latest on the industry’s most important topics, and bookmark the Auto Market Snapshot, a one-stop dashboard for the data our team is tracking.

COX AUTOMOTIVE OCTOBER FORECAST: NEW-VEHICLE INVENTORY LEVELS ARE IMPROVING, BUT SALES REMAIN LOW

October U.S. auto sales, when confirmed next week, are expected to show an increased selling pace compared to last month and last year. According to the Cox Automotive forecast released today, October’s U.S. new-vehicle sales volume is expected to rise over 4% from last year and finish with 1.11 million units sold, delivering a sales pace, or seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), for October of 14.3 million.

A sales pace of 14.3 million would be the fastest pace since April and a nice uptick from September’s 13.5 million level, likely reflecting greater product availability at some dealers.

Read the just-published press release for more details and commentary from Cox Automotive Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough.

NEW AND USED RETAIL VEHICLES SALES SEE DOUBLE-DIGIT YEAR-OVER-YEAR DECLINES

Leveraging a same-store set of dealerships selected to represent the country from Dealertrack, Cox Automotive estimates that new retail sales were down 10% year over year and used retail sales were down 11% year over year, as of Saturday, October 22.

Read the Auto Market Weekly Summary and watch the Auto Market Report video for more data and insights from Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke on new and used retail sales and inventory, depreciation patterns and Cox Automotive leading indicators.

COX AUTOMOTIVE ANALYSIS: Q3 U.S. MARKET PERFORMANCE FOR FORD, GM AND HYUNDAI

General Motors and Hyundai Motor Company have reported their Q3 results, and Ford Motor Company will be reporting tomorrow. To help shape the story, Cox Automotive analyzed each automaker’s top-line sales and pricing performance in the all-important U.S. market. There is a clear trend: Higher revenue, lower incentives.

Ford closed the quarter with positive sales, higher transaction prices and significantly lower incentive spending. GM did the same and is once again on top for U.S. sales in Q3, winning its long-held crown back from Toyota. Transaction prices kept climbing while GM continued to slash incentive spending in the third quarter. Meanwhile, Hyundai Motor’s Q3 sales outperformed the market, while its incentive spending was among the lowest in the industry.

See the Data Points on Ford, GM and Hyundai Motor for market performance analyses on sales volume, incentive spend and average transaction prices.

EPISODE 2: KEVIN CHARTIER HIGHLIGHTS USED RETAIL AND WHOLESALE MARKETS

In his mid-month market review, Kevin Chartier, vice president of Manheim Market Insights, shares his thoughts on the used wholesale and retail markets, all through the wide lens of data available from Cox Automotive.

Listen to Chartier address the possibility of a recession, auto loan rates, mid-October Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, used-vehicle retail sales and pricing, and inventory levels.

NEW-VEHICLE AVERAGE TRANSACTION PRICES FALL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN FIVE MONTHS AFTER RECENTLY HITTING RECORD HIGH, ACCORDING TO KELLEY BLUE BOOK

The average price paid for a new vehicle in the U.S. in September 2022 was down from August’s record but remains solidly above the $48,000 mark, according to Kelley Blue Book.

The Kelley Blue Book new-vehicle average transaction price (ATP) decreased to $48,094 in September, slightly lower than the revised August high of $48,240. September prices were up 6.1%, or $2,775, compared to September 2021.

See the Data Point to learn more, including information on the luxury market share and ATP which continues to keep the overall industry ATP elevated.

NEW-VEHICLE INVENTORY CLOSES SEPTEMBER UP, ASKING PRICES DOWN; USED MARKET STABILIZES

New-vehicle inventory closed September at its highest level since early June 2021, and the average listing price for new vehicles fell to the lowest point in two months, according to Cox Automotive’s analysis of vAuto Available Inventory data. Still, supply remains well below historical norms, and prices are still far higher than in the past.

In the used-vehicle market, inventory and average listing prices are stabilizing, according to the Cox Automotive analysis of vAuto Available Inventory data. Used supply held steady in September and is higher than a year ago. Growth in listing prices is slowing.

Read the Data Points for new vehicles and used vehicles to learn more about the end-of-September inventory levels, days’ supply and average listing prices.

TAKEAWAYS FROM U.S. AUTO SALES DATA: Q3 2022

New-vehicle sales in the U.S. were remarkably stable through the third quarter of 2022. The Q3 average of 1.13 million sales per month was aligned with the market average sales volume for the past year, which coincidentally has been an average of 1.13 million vehicles sold each month.

Check out the 10 quick takeaways for Q3 from our Kelley Blue Book team, and download the Q3 Kelley Blue Book Light-Vehicle Sales Report.

ELECTRIFIED VEHICLE SALES HIT RECORD

Sales of electrified vehicles hit a record in Q3 2022, according to Kelley Blue Book. More than 200,000 electrified vehicles were sold in the three months of Q3 – a first – with the segment far outpacing the rest of the industry in terms of volumes and share growth.

Read the press release for more details and download the Q3 Kelley Blue Book Electrified Vehicle Sales Report.

Looking ahead: Cox Automotive will provide a look at leasing. We will also publish quarterly U.S. market performance reports for Stellantis, Toyota, Honda and Nissan the day before each automaker announces earnings.

On Sales Day, November 1, we will provide commentary on U.S. auto sales. Check back with Smoke on Cars for a new post from Jonathon Smoke on Wednesday, November 2, addressing the outcome of the Fed meeting. We will also publish Data Points on October fleet sales (November 4) and on the October Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (November 7).

If you have questions or want to connect with the Cox Automotive PR team in the meantime, feel free to contact us.

AUTO QUOTES

“This gain may sound like a treat, but it is more likely a statistical trick. It seems more likely that the statistical adjustments made to reflect an additional selling day are lifting the SAAR rather than a noticeable uptick in sales across the marketplace.”

– Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist, Cox Automotive, in the October sales forecast press release.

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