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Cox Automotive Newsletter October 11, 2022


Welcome to From the Newsroom, a roundup of news from Cox Automotive and perspectives from its analysts and experts on topics dominating the automotive industry.

It’s amazing to think we are already into the fourth quarter. Over the last couple of weeks, we closed out the third quarter with our Industry Insights and Sales Forecast Call and our Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index Call. If you missed them, the replays and related content are available in the Newsroom.
Since our last newsletter, Southwest Florida endured Hurricane Ian and truly devastating destruction. It’s a small consolation, but vehicle loss estimates are substantially lower than Hurricane Harvey. Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke posted this morning estimates on vehicle damage and the subsequent replacement demand and wholesale prices.

In the Auto Market Report video published this morning, Smoke, said: “We are seeing the market contend with the disruption from Hurricane Ian and the impact of replacement demand now forming. We do expect Florida to see stronger than normal demand through October and into the month of November.”

In this newsletter, we also highlight
 the latest Fed movesthe September Dealertrack Vehicle Affordability Index and certified pre-owned sales.
Congratulations to two Rising Stars! Cox Automotive and the National Association of Minority Automobile Dealers (NAMAD) awarded two
Rising Star Awards to Jarryd Carver, chief executive officer, Winners Circle Automotive Group, and Michael Lee, dealer principalFreedom Kia of Morgantown.

We hope you find this selection of articles informative and helpful. Visit the Cox Automotive Newsroom for the latest on the industry’s most important topics, and bookmark the Auto Market Snapshot, a one-stop dashboard for the data our team is tracking.


Both the Moody’s Analytics and CNN Back-to-Normal Index and the Index of Consumer Sentiment from Morning Consult declined week over week, mainly from stock market volatility and gas prices continuing to increase.
Cox Automotive leading indicators are mostly down so far in October, with the bright spot being service metrics that are trending positively.

Access to auto credit expanded for the first time in five months in September, according to the Dealertrack Credit Availability Index for all types of auto loans. All loan types saw loosening in September. All new loans loosened the most while used loans through independent dealers loosened the least in the month.

Read the Auto Market Weekly Summary and watch the Auto Market Report video for more data and insights from Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke on new and used retail sales and inventory, depreciation patterns and Cox Automotive leading indicators.


Any time a hurricane wreaks havoc, prevention and mitigation to reduce loss of life and property are top priorities. Clearly, life is more important, but we do receive many inquiries about the vehicle-specific impact of various storms.
When considering the range of severely damaged vehicles in the wake of Hurricane Ian, Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke believes the impact will be around 50,000 vehicles, a number far lower than Hurricane Harvey from 2017, which ultimately resulted in an excess of 300,000 vehicles damaged or destroyed. 
See the report on Hurricane Ian related to vehicle damage and the subsequent replacement demand and wholesale prices.


For much of 2022, and particularly in the first half, vehicle demand has been healthy despite tight inventory and high prices. However, recent actions by the Federal Reserve are beginning to negatively impact the auto market.
Instead of making incremental changes and then pausing to assess the impact, the Fed is full steam ahead with its plan to induce pain in the economy.

Read the latest Smoke on Cars piece to see Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke’s thoughts on how the latest Fed rate increase and very hawkish plans have changed the outlook for the auto market.


The Cox Automotive Industry Insights team provided a deep dive into the economy and auto industry – the new, used and wholesale vehicle markets for the third quarter. The Cox Automotive September U.S. auto sales forecast was released as well as a Q3 update to the 2022 Cox Automotive forecasts and 2022 predictions.
Watch the replay and download the presentation of the Cox Automotive Q3 2022 Industry Insights and Sales Forecast Call to hear the latest Cox Automotive data and insights on the U.S. auto market.


Wholesale used-vehicle prices decreased 3.0% in September from August. This brought the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index to 204.5, down 0.1% from a year ago. The non-adjusted price change declined 2.1% in September, bringing it to a decrease of 2.3% year over year. September 2022 was the first month since May 2020 that wholesale values declined year over year.
Watch the replay and download the presentation to see more from Smoke as well as Chris Frey, senior manager of economic and industry insights for Cox Automotive, and Jeremy Robb, senior director of market insights and business solutions at Cox Automotive.

Looking ahead: Check back in the Newsroom for new September content, including Kelley Blue Book average transaction prices plus inventory updates for both new and used vehicles including average listing prices.
Next week, we will publish the Cox Automotive/Moody’s Analytics Vehicle Affordability Index, as well as the mid-month Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index and the Manheim Market Insight video from Kevin Chartier, head of Manheim Market Insights, and an update to Xtime service metrics.

If you have questions or want to connect with the Cox Automotive PR team in the meantime, feel free to contact us.
“The one upgrade in our quarterly forecasting updates for Q3 was to take CPO sales up slightly. CPO has been up and down this year as it’s impacted by supply and demand, but we should see CPO end the year at 2.4 million. The value of an extended warranty cannot be understated, especially in a rising cost environment.

– Chris Frey, senior manager of economic and industry insights at Cox Automotive, in the Data Point published today: September CPO Sales Lowest Since February, Expected to Rebound
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