NOTE: A version of this article was first published on or about March 3, 2022, on my Seeking Alpha Marketplace site.

I have been following the feedback from the Rivian (RIVN) price increases on the forums. The early reservation holders are facing significant price increases, having placed their deposits based on a lower price. It’s safe to say that most people are fuming and canceling.

Several thoughts come to mind when it comes to these price increases. In no particular order:

First, it had been implicitly assumed that Rivian would and could sell below cost in the early days because the company is part-owned by Amazon (AMZN), which allegedly supplied services below cost in its early days -- or at least so the folklore goes (I don’t necessarily agree with that interpretation).

The other analogy is another most famous electric car company, which lost money every year until about two years ago. For whatever reason, Rivian either doesn’t want to lose money soon after it starts delivering its first product, or perhaps it’s as simple as it just don’t want to lose *as much* money as it otherwise would.

Second, if Rivian has a hard time profitably selling their mostly conventionally designed pickup truck for around $70,000, how realistic is it that Tesla (TSLA) could sell its far more expensive design for $40,000? It seems to me that the Tesla CyberTruck would end up being at least twice as expensive as the $40,000 promise. Maybe three times. Of course, that’s if you assume Tesla would price to cost. Maybe Tesla ends up deciding that the CyberTruck will be a loss-leader and simply limit the quantities sold so that it does not get out of hand.

In that scenario, the CyberTruck essentially becomes a marketing symbol, and its losses would effectively become part of Tesla’s marketing budget. If you have a market cap in the several hundred billion dollars, you can afford to do that.

Still, I find it unlikely that unless Tesla severely subsidizes the product, people are going to take delivery of the CyberTruck at the $40,000 price that they were promised years ago. Remember, the original delivery date was 2021.

Third, we are getting close to actual review-comparisons between electric pickup trucks. Rivian started delivering vehicles in the second half of 2021. I have seen a few on the streets. The GMC Hummer started deliveries in late December, and the forums are filled with evidence of deliveries taking place since then. Not in the many hundreds perhaps, but perhaps a couple hundred. I imagine there could be 400+ deliveries in Q1.

Then add the Ford F-150 BEV, which starts deliveries in Q2. I think the Ford F-150 BEV will be the volume leader, by far. Not even close. For full-year calendar 2022, I think it could end up with close to 90% segment market share. That will change in 2023 when General Motors (GM) gets started with the less expensive pickup trucks, not just GMC-branded but also Chevrolet-branded, but for 2022 Ford will be the dominant player in this segment.

We should be seeing Hummer-Rivian review-comparisons in the next month or two. Then, review-comparison that include the Ford F-150 BEV hopefully no later than June.

The Rivian pickup truck seems like a decent product. It certainly looks good, except for those frog-like headlights. However, I think Rivian could be cannon-fodder when consumers can choose between the GMC Hummer (at the high end of the market, initially $112,000 but later all the way down to $80,000 or so, with other GM brands including Chevrolet selling for even less) and Ford F-150 BEV mostly in the $40,000 - $80,000 price range.