Auto news and perspectives from its analysts and experts on topics dominating the automotive industry.

COX AUTOMOTIVE FEBRUARY FORECAST: TIGHT INVENTORY KEEPS U.S. AUTO SALES FROM GAINING TRACTION
 
New-vehicle sales in February are expected to reach 1.08 million units, a drop of 11% compared to February 2021, according to a forecast released last week by Cox Automotive. We should have a full measure of the results later this week. 

At this point, we expect the February pace of U.S. auto sales, or seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), to show a market still significantly constrained by lack of new-vehicle supply and finish near 14.4 million, down from January’s 15.0 pace, and down from last February’s 15.9 million level. There were 24 selling days in February, the same as last year, so the decline in pace is not due to seasonal adjustments, but rather a tight supply situation that continues to hold back the market. Our press release from last week has more details.

STRONG TAX REFUND SEASON EXPECTED TO START IN MARCH

Retail vehicle sales lost momentum as the month ended, and tax refunds – or the lack thereof – are to blame, according to Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke. But he's confident they will come, eventually. In fact, he is predicting a very strong tax refund season, with refund amounts up substantially. However, tax refund season this year will get rolling in March rather than February.
 
Read the Auto Market Weekly Summary and watch the Auto Market Report video for more data and insights from Smoke and an update on the Cox Automotive leading indicators.

COX AUTOMOTIVE INTRODUCES DRIVEQ, THE DATA INTELLIGENCE ENGINE POWERING ITS FAMILY OF LEADING SERVICES AND SOLUTIONS

Cox Automotive launched last week DRiVEQ, the official branding of the company’s dynamic data intelligence capabilities that powers the industry’s largest portfolio of automotive solutions and services. DRiVEQ combines Cox Automotive’s broad portfolio of first-party automotive data, sourced from the company’s many end-to-end automotive solutions, with cutting-edge artificial intelligence technology.
 
Read the press release to learn more about how DRiVEQ powers Cox Automotive’s ability to deliver valuable business insights, services and solutions not only to the company’s many clients but to the auto industry as a whole.

WHOLESALE VEHICLE PRICES DECLINE IN THE FIRST HALF OF FEBRUARY
 
Wholesale used-vehicle prices declined 1.5% in the first 15 days of February compared to the full month of January. This brought the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) to 232.8, which was up 37.6% from February 2021. The non-adjusted price change in the first half of February declined 1.4% compared to January, leaving the unadjusted average price up 33.5% year over year.
 
On a year-over-year basis, all major market segments saw seasonally adjusted price gains through the first 15 days of February. Pickups had the smallest year-over-year gains, vans had the largest at 51.1%, and both non-luxury car segments outpaced the overall industry in seasonally adjusted price growth. Compared to January, all major segments except vans saw price declines, with mid-size cars declining the most. The official February MUVVI, with data for the full month, will be posted next week. 

See the Data Point for more mid-month details on the Manheim Market Report and sales conversion rate, and RSVP to attend the Q1 Manheim Used Vehicle Value Call on Thursday, April 7, at 11 a.m. EST.

MANHEIM EXPRESS HITS TWO MAJOR MILESTONES AS CLIENT ADOPTION SOARS
 
As 2022 gets underway, Manheim Express has crossed two major milestones. More than 1,000 Manheim team members now serve Manheim Express dealer and commercial clients across the U.S. This accelerated team growth is driven by soaring client adoption, with Manheim Express having exceeded 35,000 active marketplace participants. Since 2019, sales of inventory listed through the app have increased over 700%, with hundreds of thousands of vehicles being sold from dealers’ lots in that time. Comparing Q4 2020 to Q4 2021, Manheim Express sales grew more than 188%. Find out more details.

DEALERSHIP SERVICE ACTIVITY DECREASES IN JANUARY, REVENUE HITS RECORD, ACCORDING TO XTIME METRICS
 
Service centers at U.S. franchised dealerships were less busy in January than in December, according to the latest analysis of Xtime metrics. The Repair Order Volume Index decreased month over month while the Repair Order Revenue Index increased. Repair order volume remains below pre-pandemic levels, but revenue per repair set another record high. Check out the latest Data Point for additional information.

NEW FORM ONLINE RETAILERS SEE A SIGNIFICANT RISE IN SHOPPERS
 
In the past week, Carvana and Vroom have both reported significant revenue growth for the fourth quarter and full year of 2021. That comes as no surprise in that these so-called New Form Online Retailers (NFORs) also have experienced a steady and substantial rise in the number of shoppers visiting their websites.
 
One in four vehicle buyers visited an online retail site like Carvana and Vroom in 2021, up dramatically from 17% in 2020 and only 3% five years ago when it all began, according to the most recent Cox Automotive Car Buyer Journey Study, which has tracked consumer attitudes toward the car-buying process. The NFORs are promising a completely digital transaction, which is the route more buyers want to take. And the industry is certainly taking notice. Read additional commentary from Cox Automotive Executive Analyst Michelle Krebs.

REGISTER TODAY: COX AUTOMOTIVE Q1 2022 INDUSTRY INSIGHTS AND SALES FORECAST WEBCAST – MARCH 28, 1 P.M. EST

Register now to join Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke, Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough, and the Industry Insights team for the Q1 2022 Industry Insights and Sales Forecast Webcast.
 
During this 90-minute session, the team will present data and insights to help quantify how the industry performed, review our first-quarter forecast, and provide an outlook on what to expect going forward.