Cox Automotive Monthly Automotive Report

KELLEY BLUE BOOK BRAND WATCH REPORTS: FORD TOPS TOYOTA; LEXUS SQUEAKS BY BMW; AND SHOPPING FOR ELECTRIFIED VEHICLES GOES MAINSTREAM

Hot new products and more plentiful inventory pushed the Ford brand to No. 1 in shopping consideration in Q4 2021, a spot Toyota held for nearly four years straight, according to the Kelley Blue Book Brand Watch™ report for non-luxury vehicles. 

Lexus squeaked by BMW as the most-shopped luxury brand in the fourth quarter, a spot the German brand had held for the past three years, according to the luxury Brand Watch. But Tesla is right behind both.
 
Shopping for electrified vehicles set another record, and some models were among the most shopped of all luxury and non-luxury vehicles, electrified or not, illustrating electrified vehicles are going mainstream.
 
The Kelley Blue Book Brand Watch Report is a consumer perception survey that weaves in shopping behavior to determine how a brand or model stacks up with its segment competitors. Kelley Blue Book produces Brand Watch reports for non-luxury and luxury brands each quarter and includes a closer look at electrified vehicles.

2022 IS OFF TO A SLUGGISH START 

New and used sales failed to gain momentum last week with new retail sales down 22% and used retail sales down 18% compared to 2019. Vehicle supplies remain tight to start the year but are improving. Check back on the Newsroom later this week for updates on new and used inventory.
 
Access to auto credit expanded in January, according to the Dealertrack Credit Availability Index for all types of auto loans. The All Loans Index increased 0.4% to 102.0 in January, reflecting that auto credit was easier to get in the month compared to December. Access was looser by 7.6% year over year. The index was last higher in November 2018.
 
Read the Auto Market Weekly Summary and watch the Auto Market Report video for more data and insights from Smoke and an update on the Cox Automotive leading indicators.

NEW-VEHICLE PRICES RETREAT FROM RECORD HIGHS BUT REMAIN WELL ABOVE MSRP, ACCORDING TO KELLEY BLUE BOOK

New-vehicle average transaction prices (ATPs) decreased to $46,404 in January 2022, according to new data released today by Kelley Blue Book, after reaching a record high in December 2021. Prices fell 1.8% ($839) month over month mostly due to fewer luxury vehicles being sold in January, but prices remain elevated compared to one year ago, up 12.5% ($5,155) from January 2021. With new-vehicle supply holding steady at the same level since Thanksgiving and customer demand remaining strong, dealers continue to hold prices at or above the manufacturer’s suggested retail price (MSRP). 
 
Read the Data Point for details on price change percentage by automaker and average incentive spend as a percentage of ATP.

WHOLESALE PRICES STABLE IN JANUARY BUT SEE SEASONAL DECLINE

Wholesale used-vehicle prices were essentially unchanged in January compared to December. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index increased slightly to 236.3, which was a 45.0% increase from a year ago. The non-adjusted price change in January was a decline of 0.9% compared to December, leaving the unadjusted average price up 40.8% year over year.
 
On a year-over-year basis, all major market segments saw seasonally adjusted price gains in January. On a month-over-month basis, the segment performance was more mixed as compact cars, luxury cars, and pickups declined, while midsize cars, sports cars, and SUVs saw gains.
 
See the Data Point for more details on the Manheim Market Report and sales conversion rate.

CPO SALES GET OFF TO A SLOW START IN JANUARY

Certified pre-owned (CPO) sales in January fell to 166,309 units. This total is down nearly 11% from December’s 186,748 and down nearly 17% from January 2021. January’s CPO result is the lowest monthly total since April 2020. CPO sales have been in decline since having strong sales in Q2 and Q3 of 2021.
 
“Used vehicle demand is strong right now, so many dealers have decided they don’t need to push the CPO program to propel sales,” said Brian Finkelmeyer, senior director of new-car solutions, Cox Automotive. “Plus, used-vehicle values are sky-high, so there is not a lot of ‘room’ left in the deal. To hold prices down, dealers are foregoing the CPO process.”
 
See the Data Point for details.

EV SALES ARE POISED TO INCREASE IN 2022; ELECTRIC PICKUP TRUCKS WILL CERTAINLY HELP

Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke participated in a panel discussion titled Electric Vehicle Strategies: Driving Mass Market Uptake last week at the BloombergNEF Summit in San Francisco. Bloomberg set the stage of the discussion by stating that policy mandates and subsidies characterized the first phase in the global electric vehicle (EV) market, but now organic consumer demand is taking over, and adoption is rising very quickly in many markets. 
 
Smoke was joined by an interesting group of panelists from across the industry for a discussion on where companies are placing their bets, how consumers are responding, and where the market will be in five years.
 
Read the Smoke on Cars article for more insights into why Smoke thinks the most interesting growth segment will be new EV pickup trucks.

Speaking of electric pickup trucks, our Public Affairs Director Mark Schirmer was in Chicago last week for the preview of the annual auto show, which opened to the public on February 12. New EV pickups from Chevrolet, Ford and GMC were all on display. The show is smaller than in years past, but Schirmer was ready to celebrate nonetheless. You can read his reaction here.