BLACK BOOK USED VEHICLE RETENTION INDEX DECLINES FOR 5TH STRAIGHT MONTH
Despite Recent Decline, Index Is Still Higher Than Its Level A Year Ago
LAWRENCEVILLE, GA (May 6, 2019) – Black Book, a division of Hearst that provides industry-leading used vehicle valuation and residual value forecast solutions, released its Used Vehicle Retention Index for April (113.6), a -0.2% change from March (113.8). Despite the Index now falling for five straight months it is still 1.4% higher than a year ago (112.0). Click here to obtain a copy of the latest index data.
A total of fourteen segments finished the month in positive change territory, led by Premium Sporty Cars at a 1.4% change, followed by Full-Size Vans at 1.2%. Following are the remaining segments that saw positive change during April:
· Compact Crossovers 1.1%
· Sporty Car 0.8%
· Compact Cars 0.7%
· Sub-Compact Car 0.6%
· Full-Size Pickups 0.5%
· Minivan 0.5%
· Full-Size Crossover/SUV 0.4%
· Full-Size Luxury CUV/SUV 0.4%
· Mid-Size Car 0.3%
· Mid-Size Crossover/SUV 0.3%
· Small Pickup 0.3%
· Full-Size Car 0.1%
The Index has reflected a late start to the spring selling season, dropping each month since November. SUV’s and Luxury vehicles showed the largest declines in March, with Minivans, Compact to Mid-Size Cars and Small Pickups having modest gains. Market share changes reflect a continued shift away from cars and toward more SUV’s and Pickups.
“That the Index has declined for five straight months and it is still slightly higher than where it was a year ago is a testament to the sheer strength in the market we saw throughout 2018,” said Anil Goyal, Executive Vice President, Operations. “Much of the 2018 activity was spurred by economic strength, resulting in significant demand for affordable used sedan values. It will be difficult to replicate that activity over the remainder of 2019.”
The Black Book Used Vehicle Retention Index is calculated using Black Book’s published Wholesale Average value on two- to six-year-old used vehicles, as percent of original typically-equipped MSRP. It is weighted based on registration volume and adjusted for seasonality, vehicle age, mileage, and condition. The Index offers an accurate, representative, and unbiased view of the strength of today’s used vehicle market values.
The Index dates to January 2005, where Black Book published a benchmark index value of 100.0 for the market. During 2008, the index dropped by 14.1% while during 2016, the index fell by just 6.4%. During 2011, the index rose strongly from 113.3 to 123.0 by the end of the year as the economy picked up steam and used vehicle values rose higher. It continued to remain relatively stable, rising slightly until May of 2014 when it hit a peak of 128.1.
Click to download the Black Book Used Vehicle Retention Index, updated May 2019. CLICK HERE
About Black Book
Black Book® is best known in the automotive industry for providing timely, independent and accurate vehicle pricing information, and is available to industry-qualified users through online subscription products, mobile applications and licensing agreements. Since 1955 Black Book has continuously evolved to ensure that it achieves its goal of delivering mission-critical information to its customers, along with the insight necessary to successfully buy, sell, and lend. Black Book data is published daily by National Auto Research, a division of Hearst, and the company maintains offices in Georgia, Florida, and Maryland as well as the Canadian Black Book in Toronto.