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November Sales Steer Auto Industry Back on Record-Setting Path, Says Edmunds.com


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SANTA MONICA, Calif., Nov. 23, 2016 -- Edmunds.com car information and shopping network, forecasts that 1,365,369 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in November, for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 17.6 million. The projected sales volume is unchanged from October 2016 but a 2.7 percent increase from November 2015 – and would be a November record, eclipsing the 1,329,668 new cars sold in November last year.

Edmunds.com projects that 15,844,726 new cars and trucks will be sold this year in the U.S. through the end of November, essentially the same as the 15,838,458 sales recorded through the first eleven months of 2015's record-breaking year.

"It's probably no coincidence that this month's strong sales performance come at the same time that the Dow Jones Average reached an all-time high," says Edmunds.com Executive Director of Industry Analysis Jessica Caldwell. "Now that the presidential election is over, shoppers have more confidence in the economy than they had just a month ago, and that gives them extra motivation to make big-ticket purchases. If this month's forecast holds, December's year-over-year sales only need to be flat to set a new annual record in 2016. Get your popcorn ready because it's going to be a nail-biter."

SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER







Sales Volume

November 2016 Forecast

November 2015

October 2016

Change from November 2015

Change from October 2016

GM

248,600

229,296

258,626

8.4%

-3.9%

Toyota

197,882

189,517

186,295

4.4%

6.2%

Ford

188,450

186,889

187,080

0.8%

0.7%

Fiat Chrysler

159,551

185,908

176,609

-14.2%

-9.7%

Honda

125,151

115,441

126,161

8.4%

-0.8%

Hyundai/Kia

112,010

105,560

111,482

6.1%

0.5%

Nissan

111,400

107,083

113,520

4.0%

-1.9%

VW/Audi

46,584

40,582

42,500

14.8%

9.6%

Industry

1,365,369

1,329,668

1,365,756

2.7%

0.0%


*NOTE: November 2016 had 25 selling days, November 2015 had 23 and October 2016 had 26.

Edmunds estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 14.8 million vehicles in November 2016, with fleet transactions accounting for 15.8 percent of total sales. An estimated 2.8 million used cars will be sold in November 2016, for a SAAR of 37.9 million (compared to 3.1 million – or a SAAR of 37.8 million – used car sales in October).

MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER







Market Share

November 2016 Forecast

November 2015

October 2016

Change from November 2015

Change from October 2016

GM

18.2%

17.2%

18.9%

1.0%

-0.7%

Toyota

14.5%

14.3%

13.6%

0.2%

0.9%

Ford

13.8%

14.1%

13.7%

-0.3%

0.1%

Fiat Chrysler

11.7%

14.0%

12.9%

-2.3%

-1.2%

Honda

9.2%

8.7%

9.2%

0.5%

-0.1%

Hyundai/Kia

8.2%

7.9%

8.2%

0.3%

0.0%

Nissan

8.2%

8.1%

8.3%

0.1%

-0.2%

VW/Audi

3.4%

3.1%

3.1%

0.4%

0.3%