SANTA MONICA, Calif.—TrueCar, Inc. projects U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales reached $48.9 billion for the month of July, up 0.9 percent from a year ago. Despite a likely increase in incentive spending and a slight dip in retail sales, automakers should post a $428 million gain in revenue compared to last year fueled by higher average transaction prices.

Honda Motor Co. leads the industry in lowering their incentive to average transaction price ratio. The ratio dropped to 6.6 percent in July, down from 7.4 percent a year earlier. This decline was driven by Honda’s efforts to pull back incentive spending. The July incentive spend was likely down by 11.4 percent compared to last year. Additionally, strong consumer demand for the newly redesigned Civic and CR-V remained robust last month.

“Honda continues to roll out new vehicles with their aggressive product launch cadence,” said Patrick Min, TrueCar’s senior industry insights analyst. “The radically redesigned Civic bucks the trend of softening demand across the car segments with strong sales and dramatically lowered incentive support. Even though the CR-V is nearing the end of its lifecycle, Honda is benefiting from robust demand for the largest segment in the industry, compact utility vehicles.”

TrueCar estimates the average transaction price (ATP) for a new light vehicle was $32,518 in July, up 1.3 percent from a year ago. Average incentive spending per unit rose by $159 to $3,225. The ratio of incentive spending to ATP was 9.9 percent, up from 9.6 percent a year ago.

“What is interesting to note is that while overall national retail spending remains strong and consumer confidence is relatively unchanged, we are probably seeing some attempts in incentive spending to boost auto sales beyond its organic demand,” said Oliver Strauss, TrueCar’s chief economist.

 

Average Transaction Price (ATP)

Manufacturer

      

Jul. 2016
Forecast

    

Jul. 2015

    

Jun. 2016

    

Percent
Change vs.
Jul. 2015

    

Percent
Change vs.
Jun. 2016
BMW (BMW, Mini)       $52,405     $49,937     $52,372     4.9%     0.1%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart)       $59,866     $56,952     $59,866     5.1%     0.0%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat)       $33,071     $32,638     $33,065     1.3%     0.0%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln)       $36,006     $34,460     $36,095     4.5%     -0.2%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)       $34,368     $35,111     $35,740     -2.1%     -3.8%
Honda (Acura, Honda)       $27,229     $27,304     $27,381     -0.3%     -0.6%
Hyundai       $22,935     $23,484     $23,302     -2.3%     -1.6%
Kia       $22,356     $23,596     $22,741     -5.3%     -1.7%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti)       $27,502     $27,387     $27,647     0.4%     -0.5%
Subaru       $26,788     $26,662     $27,158     0.5%     -1.4%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)       $30,566     $30,353     $31,111     0.7%     -1.8%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen)       $35,066     $38,744     $38,093     -9.5%     -7.9%

Industry

      

$32,518

    

$32,104

    

$32,993

    

1.3%

    

-1.4%
                     
                             

Incentive per Unit Spending

Manufacturer

      

Jul. 2016
Forecast

      

Jul. 2015

      

Jun. 2016

      

Percent Change
vs. Jul. 2015

      

Percent
Change vs.
Jun. 2016
BMW (BMW, Mini)       $5,178       $4,151       $5,405       24.7%       -4.2%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart)       $4,538       $4,784       $4,746       -5.1%       -4.4%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat)       $3,996       $3,535       $4,063       13.0%       -1.6%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln)       $3,632       $3,018       $3,681       20.3%       -1.3%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)       $4,338       $4,257       $4,063       1.9%       6.8%
Honda (Acura, Honda)       $1,794       $2,031       $1,720       -11.6%       4.3%
Hyundai       $2,328       $2,668       $2,291       -12.7%       1.6%
Kia       $2,699       $3,022       $2,707       -10.7%       -0.3%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti)       $3,439       $3,576       $3,451       -3.9%       -0.4%
Subaru       $644       $696       $632       -7.5%       1.9%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)       $2,228       $2,127       $2,290       4.7%       -2.7%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen)       $3,796       $3,090       $3,796       22.9%       0.0%

Industry

      

$3,225

      

$3,066

      

$3,231

      

5.2%

      

-0.2%
 
                             

Incentive Spending as a Percentage of ATP

Manufacturer

      

Jul. 2016
Forecast

      

Jul. 2015

      

Jun. 2016

      

Percent Change
vs. Jul. 2015

      

Percent
Change vs.
Jun. 2016
BMW (BMW, Mini)       9.9%       8.3%       10.3%       18.9%       -4.3%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart)       7.6%       8.4%       7.9%       -9.8%       -4.4%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat)       12.1%       10.8%       12.3%       11.6%       -1.7%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln)       10.1%       8.8%       10.2%       15.2%       -1.1%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)       12.6%       12.1%       11.4%       4.1%       11.0%
Honda (Acura, Honda)       6.6%       7.4%       6.3%       -11.4%       4.9%
Hyundai       10.2%       11.4%       9.8%       -10.6%       3.3%
Kia       12.1%       12.8%       11.9%       -5.7%       1.4%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti)       12.5%       13.1%       12.5%       -4.3%       0.2%
Subaru       2.4%       2.6%       2.3%       -7.9%       3.3%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)       7.3%       7.0%       7.4%       4.0%       -1.0%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen)       10.8%       8.0%       10.0%       35.8%       8.6%

Industry

      

9.9%

      

9.6%

      

9.8%

      

3.8%

      

1.3%