SANTA MONICA, Calif.—TrueCar, Inc. projects total new vehicle sales, including fleet deliveries, will reach 1,505,200 units in July, down by 0.4 percent from a year ago.
That level of growth would push the seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales to an estimated 17.7 million units for the month, up from a 17.6 million-unit SAAR a year ago. Excluding fleet sales, U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks should decline 0.7 percent to 1,318,200 units based on some soft spots in consumer demand.
“An exceptionally hot July has tempered retail sales with some consumers electing to stay indoors and off dealership showrooms,” said Oliver Strauss, TrueCar’s chief economist and forecaster. “However, a few automakers are experiencing mild retail growth. General Motors is offering a compelling summer sales event with vehicles up to 20 percent off MSRP, meanwhile Kia Motors America is offering zero percent financing for up to 66 months, both enticing consumers to battle the heatwaves.”
Kia Motors America may report the biggest year-over-year retail sales gain, as it is currently on pace for a 7 percent rise in volume. GM will likely follow with a 2.9 percent retail sales increase. Nissan Motor Co. may post the third-biggest gains, with a 1 percent increase in retail sales.
Total volume for non-luxury, mass-market brands will likely be down by 0.4 percent versus last year, while sales of luxury models may decline by 0.6 percent. Both compact crossover and large utility vehicles remain in high-demand in July and will be among the industry’s biggest volume segments.
Incentive spending by automakers averaged an estimated $3,225 per vehicle in July, up 5.2 percent from a year ago, though down 0.2 percent from June 2016.
“The most recent positive news about the U.S. labor market in combination with resilient consumer confidence continue to provide upbeat signals about the health of the U.S. economy,” Strauss said. “Concerns in regards to “Brexit” and the outcome of the U.S. presidential election in November have perhaps taken a bit of a backseat. Yet the U.S. Fed remains cautious before possibly making an adjustment to the Federal Funds Rate. Overall, we remain optimistic that 2016 industry light vehicle sales will beat last year’s performance.”
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index is relatively unchanged in July at 97.3, down from 97.4 in June and overall U.S. economic conditions remain healthy. June’s unemployment rate was 4.9 percent, the lowest for that month in eight years, while gasoline prices remain favorable for consumers, falling to a national average of $2.15 per gallon on July 26 from $2.72 a year earlier.
Other key findings for July:
- Registration mix is expected to be 87.6 percent retail sales and 12.4 percent fleet versus 87.8 percent retail and 12.2 percent fleet last July.
- Total used auto sales, including franchise and independent dealerships and private-party transactions, may reach 3,441,581, up 4 percent from July 2015.
Forecasts for the 12 largest manufacturers by volume:
Total Unit Sales
|
Manufacturer |
July 2016 Forecast |
July 2015 |
% Change vs. |
||||||
| BMW | 31,000 | 32,234 | -3.8% | ||||||
| Daimler | 30,200 | 30,131 | 0.2% | ||||||
| FCA | 180,100 | 178,984 | 0.6% | ||||||
| Ford | 223,300 | 222,014 | 0.6% | ||||||
| GM | 272,000 | 272,512 | -0.2% | ||||||
| Honda | 145,800 | 146,324 | -0.4% | ||||||
| Hyundai | 69,700 | 71,013 | -1.8% | ||||||
| Kia | 61,700 | 56,311 | 9.6% | ||||||
| Nissan | 133,800 | 130,872 | 2.2% | ||||||
| Subaru | 48,000 | 50,517 | -5.0% | ||||||
| Toyota | 208,200 | 217,181 | -4.1% | ||||||
| Volkswagen Group | 48,800 | 53,982 | -9.6% | ||||||
|
Industry |
1,505,200 |
1,511,261 |
-0.4% |
||||||
Total Market Share
| Manufacturer | July 2016 Forecast | July 2015 | June 2016 | ||||||
| BMW | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | ||||||
| Daimler | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.1% | ||||||
| FCA | 12.0% | 11.8% | 13.1% | ||||||
| Ford | 14.8% | 14.7% | 15.8% | ||||||
| GM | 18.1% | 18.0% | 16.9% | ||||||
| Honda | 9.7% | 9.7% | 9.2% | ||||||
| Hyundai | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.5% | ||||||
| Kia | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.1% | ||||||
| Nissan | 8.9% | 8.7% | 9.3% | ||||||
| Subaru | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.1% | ||||||
| Toyota | 13.8% | 14.4% | 13.1% | ||||||
| Volkswagen Group | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.1% | ||||||
Retail Unit Sales
|
Manufacturer |
July 2016 Forecast |
July 2015 |
% Change vs. |
||||||
| BMW | 30,000 | 31,816 | -5.7% | ||||||
| Daimler | 28,600 | 29,033 | -1.5% | ||||||
| FCA | 151,900 | 158,600 | -4.2% | ||||||
| Ford | 169,200 | 170,044 | -0.5% | ||||||
| GM | 231,600 | 224,984 | 2.9% | ||||||
| Honda | 143,900 | 144,715 | -0.6% | ||||||
| Hyundai | 55,700 | 56,487 | -1.4% | ||||||
| Kia | 52,400 | 48,992 | 7.0% | ||||||
| Nissan | 113,000 | 111,893 | 1.0% | ||||||
| Subaru | 45,500 | 49,239 | -7.6% | ||||||
| Toyota | 201,700 | 203,392 | -0.8% | ||||||
| Volkswagen Group | 46,300 | 51,133 | -9.5% | ||||||
|
Industry |
1,318,200 |
1,326,869 |
-0.7% |
||||||
Incentive Spending
| Manufacturer |
Incentive per Unit |
Incentive per Unit |
Incentive per Unit |
Total Spending |
||||||||
| BMW | $5,178 | 24.7% | -4.2% | $159,996,931 | ||||||||
| Daimler | $4,538 | -5.1% | -4.4% | $137,034,668 | ||||||||
| FCA | $3,996 | 13.0% | -1.6% | $715,303,433 | ||||||||
| Ford | $3,632 | 20.3% | -1.3% | $811,080,602 | ||||||||
| GM | $4,338 | 1.9% | 6.8% | $1,180,061,667 | ||||||||
| Honda | $1,794 | -11.6% | 4.3% | $261,611,907 | ||||||||
| Hyundai | $2,328 | -12.7% | 1.6% | $162,275,897 | ||||||||
| Kia | $2,699 | -10.7% | -0.3% | $166,513,998 | ||||||||
| Nissan | $3,439 | -3.9% | -0.4% | $460,085,014 | ||||||||
| Subaru | $644 | -7.5% | 1.9% | $30,898,070 | ||||||||
| Toyota | $2,228 | 4.7% | -2.7% | $463,765,798 | ||||||||
|
Volkswagen Group |
$3,796 | 22.9% | 0.0% | $184,122,187 | ||||||||
|
Industry |
$3,225 |
5.2% |
-0.2% |
$4,840,937,306 |
(Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar’s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company’s operations.)