New-Car Sales To Jump 8 Percent In March 2016; Highest Monthly Volume In 10 Years

IRVINE, Calif., March 28, 2016 -- New-vehicle sales are expected to increase 8 percent year-over-year to a total of 1.66 million units in March 2016, resulting in an estimated 17.2 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), according to Kelley Blue Book www.kbb.com, the vehicle valuation and information source trusted and relied upon by both consumers and the automotive industry.  Two additional selling days will help this month's volume totals as the SAAR will stay relatively consistent with recent months.

"The industry continues to maintain its momentum in March as we expect the highest volume of any month in more than 10 years," said Tim Fleming, analyst for Kelley Blue Book.  "However, we continue to follow indicators that demand for new cars is weakening, while there is increased incentive spending and an increasing share of fleet sales."

The 1.66 million units will bring the first quarter total to 4.15 million, which is up 5 percent year-over-year, making this the second highest first quarter on record, surpassed only by Q1 2000.  This also could be the highest March sales total since 2000, when sales also hit 1.66 million units, and the highest volume total of any month since July 2005.

Key Highlights for Estimated March 2016 Sales Forecast:

• In March, new light-vehicle sales, including fleet, are expected to hit 1,660,000 units, up 8 percent from March 2015 and up 24 percent from February 2016.
• The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for March 2016 is estimated to be 17.2 million, up from 17.1 million in March 2015 and down from 17.4 million in February 2016.
• Retail sales are expected to account for 76.1 percent of volume in March 2016, down from 77.2 percent in March 2015.

Fiat Chrysler to Report Greatest Year-Over-Year Gains on Minivans, Jeep Brand
Fiat Chrysler could have the best month of all major manufacturers, with double-digit growth expected in March.  The largest year-over-year improvements will be from Dodge Grand Caravan and Chrysler Town & Country minivans, which were low on inventory at this time last year.  The Jeep brand also should post another record in March with year-over-year strength headlined by the Renegade. 

Kelley Blue Book also anticipates American Honda will report double-digit growth in March, led by the new Civic.  In addition, the new HR-V continues to perform well and collect industry awards, including Kelley Blue Book's 5-Year Cost to Own Award.  Meanwhile, the Honda Pilot is one of the fastest selling models this month, averaging just 18 days in dealer inventory.               

Small Utility Vehicles Averaging 20 Percent Growth This Year
"Small utility vehicles continue to outpace the rest of the industry, as the most popular segment is now averaging 20 percent growth this year," said Fleming.  "Mainstay models like the Toyota RAV4 and Honda CR-V still sit atop the segment, while new models like the Jeep Renegade and Honda HR-V are gaining popularity with consumers by demonstrating their values as more affordable, but still versatile, small crossovers."

Full-size trucks are another segment that could gain market share in March.  However, incentive spend has been on the rise, topping $4,000 average per unit year-to-date and a number that we are watching this year.   

There are 27 sales days in March 2016, compared to 25 sales days in March 2015.  All percentages are based on raw volume, not daily selling rate.