Gasoline Prices - Fall Back or Spring Ahead?

MORE INFO: Gas Prices In Context - 1996-2016

The groundhog may have seen its shadow, but gas pricing is more complicated than a short winter.

ALEXANDRIA, Va. February 8, 2016; NACSonline reported that the chatter has already started online about where gas prices are headed based on two sets of news stories related to $10 oil. In one corner, some are talking up the possibility of sub-$1.00-per-gallon gas if oil prices plummet to $10 per barrel. In the other corner, some are talking about how President Obama’s proposed $10 per barrel tax might push prices higher.

While it remains to be seen if either scenario plays out—and history suggests that neither is likely—there are other factors that influence gasoline prices in the spring as refiners conduct routine maintenance and the industry prepares for the transition to summer-blend fuel.

Since 2000, these factors have placed upward pressure on prices and they have increased an average of 53 cents per gallon from the first week in February until their seasonal peak, which often occurs in mid-May. This year, gas prices had a weekly average of $1.82 per gallon on February 1, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Over the past decade, NACS has tracked springtime prices reported by EIA in a primer examining spring gas prices. This report is one of many new and updated resources in the NACS Retail Fuels Report. Look for an announcement in NACS Daily when the site goes live in the coming month.

And while you’re waiting for our update, you may want to vacation in Canada, where low oil prices have contributed to a favorable exchange rate for Americans travelling there.