New-Car Sales To Jump 12 Percent In October 2015; Highest October Volume Since 2001

IRVINE, CA -- Oct. 27, 2015: New-vehicle sales are expected to increase nearly 12 percent year-over-year to a total of 1.43 million units in October 2015, resulting in an estimated 17.9 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), according to Kelley Blue Book.  At 1.43 million units, this will be the highest October sales volume since 2001.

"Coming off the strongest sales month in a decade in September, sales continue to roll along this month, with double-digit growth expected for the industry in October 2015," said Alec Gutierrez, senior analyst for Kelley Blue Book.  "Key economic indicators for auto sales are still strong, including jobless claims at a historic low as the national unemployment rate approaches 5 percent, fuel pricing nearing six-year lows and interest rates that remain near zero.  This momentum has pushed Kelley Blue Book's forecast to 17.4 million for 2015, a 5.6 percent year-over-year improvement."

Key Highlights for Estimated October 2015 Sales Forecast:

• In October, new light-vehicle sales, including fleet, are expected to reach 1,430,000 units, up 11.9 percent from October 2014 and down 0.6 percent from September 2015.
• The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for October 2015 is estimated to be 17.9 million, up from 16.5 million in October 2014 and down from 18.1 million in September 2015.
• Retail sales are expected to account for 84.8 percent of volume in October 2015, up from 84 percent in October 2014.

F-Series Volume Pushing Ford to New Levels of Growth; Volkswagen Sales Remain Flat
This month, expect continued growth from Ford Motor Company, with a 16.6 percent increase in new-car sales.  The new F-150 is pushing the overall F-Series volume to new levels of growth this year, while the refreshed Explorer also is driving solid growth for Ford. 

"With most brands experiencing growth this month, Volkswagen Group should report fairly even sales totals in the wake of their diesel emissions issue," said Gutierrez.  "Audi and Porsche will be driving the sales growth for the manufacturer, as the Volkswagen brand posts negative figures, largely due to the stop-sale of its diesel models, which previously made up nearly 20 percent of the brand's sales volume."

Compact Utility Segment Strengthens at Double the Industry's Pace; Small, Mid-Size Cars Continue to Fall
For the third month in a row, compact utility vehicles will be the top segment with expected growth of nearly 40 percent.  This segment has seen five new models enter the segment in the past year, which has resulted in more than 20,000 units sold per month.  Still, the rest of the segment continues to strengthen at double the rest of the industry's pace. 

With low fuel prices and exploding popularity of small utilities, small and mid-size cars will continue to lose market share in October.  These are already two of the most competitive segments in the market, and year-to-date sales in both segments have declined.  While Kelley Blue Book expects an increase in volume in October, due to strong overall sales momentum in the automotive industry, market share will drop by more than a full percentage point for these car segments. 

There are 28 sales days in October 2015, compared to 27 sales days in October 2014.  All percentages are based on raw volume, not daily selling rate. 

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