New-Car Sales To Drop 4 Percent In August 2015
 Ford F-150, Bucking the Downward Trend |
2015 Labor Day Timing to Impact Results; Fiat Chrysler Sales Streak to End
IRVINE, CA --Aug. 26, 2015: New-vehicle sales are expected to decline 4 percent year-over-year to a total of 1.52 million units in August 2015, resulting in an estimated 17.2 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), according to Kelley Blue Book Industry sales are expected to decline in comparison to this time last year because auto sales from Labor Day weekend in 2014 were included in last year's August results. This year, the Labor Day weekend sales days will be included in the September 2015 results, so the shift in the timing of Labor Day this year impacts the year-over-year results.
"While the outlook for August remains bright, we must keep an eye on the financial markets which have declined precipitously in the last few weeks on uncertainty in international markets, namely China," said Alec Gutierrez, senior analyst for Kelley Blue Book. "We remain confident that sales in August will remain robust; however, should the U.S. financial markets continue to falter, we could see demand for new cars soften in the short to medium term. It should be noted that the unemployment rate in the U.S. remains below 6 percent, while the auto finance environment remains as attractive as ever, so we don't necessarily expect to see the sales pace deviate from its current 17 million-plus SAAR trajectory for 2015 unless the stock market continues its downward trajectory in the weeks and months to come."
Key Highlights for Estimated August 2015 Sales Forecast:
In August 2015, new light-vehicle sales, including fleet, are expected to reach 1,520,000 units, down 4 percent from August 2014 and up 0.8 percent from July 2015.
The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for August 2015 is estimated to be 17.2 million, even with August 2014 and down from 17.5 million in July 2015.
Retail sales are expected to account for 88.8 percent of volume in August 2015, up from 88.2 percent in August 2014.
Fiat Chrysler Sales Streak to End; F-150 Could Help Ford Buck Decline Trend
"This could be the end of Fiat Chrysler Automobile's streak of consecutive monthly sales increases, which began in March 2010, as Kelley Blue Book projects a 3.2 percent decline in volume," said Gutierrez. "However, the automaker is still having an incredible year of growth with the highest year-to-date sales increase of all major manufacturers."
Due to the exclusion of Labor Day in this month's sales results, Kelley Blue Book expects most automakers to report sales decline in August. One manufacturer that could buck this trend is Ford, with its F-150 growing both in sales and available inventory, following a slow launch earlier this year. Ford F-Series sales, the best-selling nameplate in the country, are down 1.3 percent through July.
|
Sales Volume 1 | Market Share 2 | |||||
| Manufacturer | Aug-15 | Aug-14 | YOY % | Aug-15 |
Aug-14 | YOY % |
| General Motors (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) | 258,000 | 272,423 | -5.3% | 17.0% | 17.2% | -0.2% |
| Ford Motor Company (Ford, Lincoln) | 222,000 | 221,373 | 0.3% |
14.6% |
14.0% |
0.6% |
| Toyota Motor Company (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) | 221,000 | 246,100 | -10.2% | 14.5% | 15.5% | -1.0% |
| Fiat Chrysler (Chrysler, Dodge, FIAT, Jeep, RAM) | 192,000 | 198,379 | -3.2% | 12.6% | 12.5% | 0.1% |
| American Honda (Acura, Honda) | 154,000 | 167,038 | -7.8% |
10.1% |
10.6% |
-0.4% |
| Nissan North America (Infiniti, Nissan) | 128,000 | 134,388 | -4.8% | 8.4% | 8.5% | -0.1% |
| Hyundai-Kia | 124,000 | 124,670 | -0.5% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 0.3% |
| Volkswagen Group (Audi, Volkswagen, Porsche) | 55,000 | 56,822 | -3.2% |
3.6% |
3.6% |
0.0% |
| Total 3 | 1,520,000 | 1,582,675 | -4.0% | - | - | - |
| 1 Historical data from OEM sales announcements | ||||||
|
2 Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights | ||||||
| 3 Includes brands not shown | ||||||
Compact Utility Segment Continues Reign, While
Car Segment Market Share Continues Decline
"Kelley Blue Book
anticipates that the compact utility segment will top all others in
August. With a host of new models at price points around $20,000, and with gas prices remaining reasonable,
this segment has never been more popular," said Gutierrez. "As a
result of moderate gas prices and increased interest in utility vehicles,
we expect market share for cars to fall once again in August.
Year-to-date, sales of cars comprise 44.5 percent of the market, whereas
they made up 47.3 percent of sales last year."
|
Sales Volume 1 | Market Share | |||||
|
Segment | Aug-15 | Aug-14 | YOY % | Aug-15 |
Aug-14 | YOY % |
| Compact SUV/Crossover | 225,000 | 208,821 | 7.7% |
14.8% |
13.2% |
1.6% |
| Mid-Size Car |
221,000 | 244,021 | -9.4% |
14.5% |
15.4% |
-0.9% |
| Compact Car | 212,000 | 229,196 | -7.5% |
13.9% |
14.5% |
-0.5% |
| Full-Size Pickup Truck | 188,000 | 194,003 | -3.1% | 12.4% | 12.3% | 0.1% |
| Mid-Size SUV/Crossover | 164,000 | 168,202 | -2.5% |
10.8% |
10.6% |
0.2% |
| Total 2 | 1,520,000 | 1,582,675 | -4.0% | - | - | - |
| 1 Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights | ||||||
| 2 Includes segments not shown | ||||||
There are 26 sales days in August 2015, compared to 27 sales days in August 2014. All percentages are based on raw volume, not daily selling rate.