Electric Powertrains Expected to Make Enormous Progress in the Gasoline-Dominated Chinese Market by 2020

The New Energy Development Program and other Government initiatives have been driving changes in the powertrain market

SHANGHAI -- March 17, 2015: With the Chinese Government's push and pull strategy of new energy vehicle development, gasoline powertrains' unit production market share is expected to slightly reduce to 94.9 percent, while the electric vehicle (EV) powertrain segment's share will expand to 4.2 percent by 2020. To accelerate the growth of the new energy vehicle market, the Government has provided cash rebates and imposed buying and driving restrictions for target models, including battery, plug-in hybrid and fuel cell EVs. Vehicle original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) across the country are adapting to these new developments and restructuring their powertrain mix to prepare for the future market scenario.

New analysis from Frost & Sullivan, Strategic Analysis of the Chinese Powertrain Market, finds that the passenger vehicle (PV) market is concentrating on gasoline, diesel and electric powertrains.

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"Besides the New Energy Vehicle Development Program, the Chinese Government has launched the National Program for Medium-to-Long-Term Scientific and Technological Development and 863 Program to transform the Chinese automotive manufacturing industry," said Frost & Sullivan Automotive & Transportation Research Associate Ming Lih Chan. "These initiatives will open up revenue opportunities for existing and new entrants in the Chinese powertrain market."

However, with the improvement of the public transportation system, the public transport commuting ratio is expected to increase, adversely impacting the PV powertrain market in China. Along with this, the saturation of the PV market in tier I and II cities is denting the prospects of powertrain OEMs in the country.

Further, the unfavourable image of diesel engines among Chinese consumers is hampering the development of the diesel powertrain segment. On the other hand, the lack of awareness and shortages of key EV components have been the main factors restraining the EV powertrain segment.

"Notwithstanding these challenges, the Chinese powertrain market will remain buoyant, with increased customer purchasing power and self-esteem needs triggering vehicle sales," noted Chan. "Companies that can complete the EV components supply chain will be the most-valued in the Chinese automotive industry."

Strategic Analysis of the Chinese Powertrain Market is part of the Automotive & Transportation Growth Partnership Service program. Frost & Sullivan's related studies include: Toyota Motor Global Product Portfolio, Financial Assessment of Global Automotive OEM Industry, Malaysian National Automotive Policy 2014, and Japanese Powertrain Market. All studies included in subscriptions provide detailed market opportunities and industry trends evaluated following extensive interviews with market participants.