New-Vehicle Retail Sales On Pace for 1.1 Million, the Strongest November Since 2001

WESTLAKE VILLAGE, CA -- Nov. 25, 2014: New-vehicle retail sales in November are expected to reach their highest level for the month since 2001, according to a monthly sales forecast developed jointly by J.D. Power and LMC Automotive.

Retail Light-Vehicle Sales New-vehicle retail sales in November 2014 are projected to come in at 1.1 million units, a 5.5 percent increase on a selling-day adjusted basis, compared with November 2013 (November 2014 has one fewer selling day than November 2013).

The retail seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) in November is expected to reach 13.5 million units, 200,000 units stronger than in November 2013. Retail transactions are the most accurate measure of true underlying consumer demand for new vehicles.

"The industry continues to demonstrate strong sales growth, which is exceptional considering that November is currently on pace to record the highest average customer-facing transaction prices ever," said John Humphrey, senior vice president of the global automotive practice at J.D. Power.

Through November 16, retail transaction prices are averaging $30,874, which is $165 more than the previous record of $30,709 in October 2014. Combined record transaction prices with strong new-vehicle retail sales has November on pace for a record month for consumer spending on new vehicle at $33.3 billion, which is $1.1 billion more than the previous record for the month of November set in 2013.

"Automakers will take advantage of the Thanksgiving holiday, one of the highest-volume holiday weekends of the year," said Humphrey.

J.D. Power forecasts that more than 238,000 units will be sold over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, which would make it the second-highest-volume holiday weekend of 2014. Labor Day weekend typically tallies the most sales of the year, with 279,000 units sold in 2014.

Total Light-Vehicle Sales Total light-vehicle sales are projected at 1.26 million units in November 2014, up 5 percent from November 2013. November is typically a low fleet month, with November 2014 expected to come in below 15 percent of total light vehicle sales with volume of 178,000 units.

1Figures cited for November 2014 are forecasted based on the first 13 selling days of the month. 2The percentage change is adjusted based on the number of selling days in the month (25 days in November 2014 vs. 26 days in November 2013). Sales Outlook As 2014 nears to a close, LMC Automotive is holding the 2014 U.S. light-vehicle retail sales forecast at 13.6 million units and total U.S. light-vehicle sales forecast at 16.4 million units.

Growth is currently expected to continue in 2015, but at a slower pace. The forecast for retail sales is for 13.9 million units, and total light-vehicle sales are expected to increase to 16.8 million units, both up 2 percent from 2014.

"The 2014 close is shaping up as expected with November looking like another strong performance," said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at LMC Automotive. "Looking forward, downward pressure has given way to upside momentum, with a stronger economy, significant new model activity and low gas prices creating an opportunity for the light-vehicle market to hit 17 million units in 2015."

North American Production North American production through October is at 14.3 million units, a 5 percent increase from the same period in 2013. Vehicle inventory heading into November was at a 76-day supply, up from 64 days in September.

LMC Automotive has increased the North American production forecast for 2014 to 16.9 million units from 16.8 million units, which is a 5 percent increase from the 16.2 million units in 2013. North American production in 2015 is expected to eclipse the 17 million-unit mark, with capacity utilization continuing to run at or above the 90 percent level.

J.D. Power and LMC Automotive U.S. Sales and SAAR Comparisons
	November 2014¹	October 2014	November 2013
New-Vehicle Retail Sales	1,077,600 units (6% higher than November 2013)²	1,052,121 units	1,062,039 units
Total Vehicle Sales	1,255,600 units (5% higher than November 2013)	1,278,629 units	1,242,668 units
Retail SAAR	13.5 million units	13.4 million units	13.3 million units
Total SAAR	16.5 million units	16.4 million units	16.2 million units