SANTA MONICA, CA--June 28, 2012: June auto sales continued at a healthy pace for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) this month of 13.9 million light vehicles, according to Edmunds.com, the premier online resource for automotive information. The projected SAAR indicates that sales gained more steam than expected at the end of the month after Edmunds.com projected a slower rate earlier this month.
“While 13.9 SAAR is not as impressive as the performance in the first quarter of this year, this month's results are still strong, considering that deferred demand following last year's earthquake has virtually dried up”
"While 13.9 SAAR is not as impressive as the performance in the first quarter of this year, this month's results are still strong, considering that deferred demand following last year's earthquake has virtually dried up," says Edmunds.com Senior analyst Jessica Caldwell. "But the healthiest sign for the industry is the pure volume of sales. June is expected to be the third highest-selling month since May 2008."
Edmunds.com estimates that 1,270,901 new cars will be sold in June. The projected sales would be a 4.7 percent decrease from May 2012, but a 20.7 percent increase (unadjusted for number of selling days) from June 2011.
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SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER |
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| Sales Volume | June-12 Forecast | June-11 | May-12 | Change from June 2011* | Change from May 2012 | ||||||||||
| GM | 233,987 | 215,335 | 245,256 | 8.7% | -4.6% | ||||||||||
| Ford | 201,980 | 193,421 | 215,699 | 4.4% | -6.4% | ||||||||||
| Toyota | 184,512 | 110,937 | 202,973 | 66.3% | -9.1% | ||||||||||
| Chrysler | 143,521 | 120,394 | 150,041 | 19.2% | -4.3% | ||||||||||
| Honda | 126,610 | 83,892 | 133,997 | 50.9% | -5.5% | ||||||||||
| Nissan | 88,113 | 71,941 | 91,794 | 22.5% | -4.0% | ||||||||||
| Industry | 1,270,901 | 1,052,772 | 1,334,131 | 20.7% | -4.7% | ||||||||||
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*NOTE: June 2012 had 27 selling days; June 2011 had 26 |
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Edmunds.com estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 11.3 million vehicles in June, with fleet transactions accounting for 19.0 percent of total sales. An estimated 2.98 million used cars will be sold in June, for a SAAR of 37.0m (compared to 3.15 million €“ or a SAAR of 36.1 million €“ used car sales in May).
AUTOMAKER PERFORMANCE
Edmunds.com reports that every major automaker will report fewer month-over-month sales in June. But Japanese automakers Toyota (+66.3%) and Honda (+50.9%) will demonstrate the biggest year-over-year sales success of any of the Big 6 manufacturers this month. The results, however, will be misleading to casual observers, thanks to depressed sales last year in the wake of the Japanese earthquake.
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MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER |
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| Market Share |
June 12 |
Jun-11 | May-12 |
Change from June 2011 (Percentage pts.) |
Change from May 2012 (Percentage pts.) |
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| GM | 18.4% | 20.5% | 18.4% | -2.0% | 0.0% | ||||||||
| Ford | 15.9% | 18.4% | 16.2% | -2.5% | -0.3% | ||||||||
| Toyota | 14.5% | 10.5% | 15.2% | 4.0% | -0.7% | ||||||||
| Chrysler | 11.3% | 11.4% | 11.2% | -0.1% | 0.1% | ||||||||
| Honda | 10.0% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 2.0% | 0.0% | ||||||||
| Nissan | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | ||||||||
In terms of market share, the top automakers will remain relatively flat compared to last month. The biggest shift will be seen by Toyota, whose share is expected to fall 0.7 percentage points from May. Year-over-year market share changes will again reflect the struggling state of earthquake-ravaged Japanese automakers last June, with Toyota and Honda each regaining much of their lost share.