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AAIA Forecasts 3.8 Percent Increase in Aftermarket Sales for 2010

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Preliminary Factbook Report

BETHESDA, Md., April 6, 2010; U.S. motor vehicle aftermarket sales are expected to increase 3.8 percent in 2010, according to preliminary analysis being compiled for the Aftermarket Factbook to be released in May by the Automotive Aftermarket Industry Association (AAIA).

The Channel Forecast Model featured in the Factbook attributes the increase partly to anticipated pent-up demand for vehicle maintenance and repair by consumers during 2009, when the aftermarket industry sales dropped for the first time in more than a decade to negative 2.4 percent.

"According to the Channel Forecast Model, the rebound in macroeconomic conditions in the U.S. that began in 2009 is expected to continue and accelerate in 2010 and 2011," said Kathleen Schmatz, AAIA president and CEO. "Most major economic indicators have already begun to move in a positive direction or will begin to trend that way during the year."

  Among the positive and negative impacts described in the model are:

  Positive Impacts:
  --  Nominal GDP growth should average over 4.5 percent annually from 2010
      through 2012.
  --  Unemployment will peak in Q3 2010 at 10.0 percent, but decline
      steadily to 7.9 percent by Q4 2012.
  --  Dramatic increases in savings rate seen in 2009 and 2010 will ease as
      consumers show growth in consumer spending after a decline in 2009.
  --  A rebound in the housing market and consumer wealth will further
      encourage consumer spending.
  --  Miles driven are expected to increase as the unemployment rate

  Negative Impacts:
  --  Increasing energy costs are helping to constrain disposable income
  --  Light vehicle sales should approach pre-recession levels of near 16
      million units by 2012.
  --  2008 through 2010 total vehicle sales of 35 million is 30 percent less
      than recent pre-recession historical three-year averages, reducing the
      number of vehicles entering traditional prime repair ages.

  About AAIA

AAIA is a Bethesda, Md.-based association whose more than 23,000 members and affiliates manufacture, distribute and sell motor vehicle parts, accessories, service, tool, equipment, materials and supplies. Through its membership, AAIA represents more than 100,000 repair shops, parts stores and distribution outlets.