Edmunds.com Forecasts February Auto Sales: Toyota Market Share Lowest Since 2005; Hyundai and Nissan Highest Ever
SANTA MONICA, Calif.--This month's new vehicle sales (including fleet sales) are expected to be 785,000 units, a 14.2 percent increase from February 2009 and a 12.9 percent increase from January 2010, according to Edmunds.com, the premier online resource for automotive information.
“Hyundai and Nissan are predicted to have their highest U.S. market share.”
Edmunds.com analysts predict that February's Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) will be 10.6 million, down from 10.7 in January 2010.
February 2010 had 24 selling days, the same number of selling days as February 2009.
| Change from February 2009 | Change from January 2010 | |||||
| Chrysler (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep) | -20.2 | % | 18.2 | % | ||
| Ford (Ford, Lincoln, Mercury, Volvo) | 35.3 | % | 18.9 | % | ||
| GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC, Hummer, Pontiac, Saab, Saturn) | 16.2 | % | 0.2 | % | ||
| Honda (Acura, Honda) | 24.1 | % | 31.6 | % | ||
| Hyundai (Hyundai, Kia) | 24.7 | % | 24.9 | % | ||
| Nissan (Infiniti, Nissan) | 38.1 | % | 19.7 | % | ||
| Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) | -10.1 | % | -0.2 | % | ||
| Industry Total | 14.2 | % | 12.9 | % | ||
“February sales figures looked encouraging, up from January of this year yet down from an abysmal performance last February. A more nuanced view, however, raises some issues -- the most important being that based on sales of recent months, February sales should have been higher. (We would estimate in the range of 11.3-11.7 million SAAR.) Sales over the Presidents’ Day weekend were robust—indicating that deal-seekers are still buying, but one strong weekend further illustrates how lackluster sales were the remainder of the month,” said Jessica Caldwell, Director of Industry Analysis at Edmunds.com.
Caldwell continued, “Some of this can be explained by supply constraints for hot models, severe weather and/or by sales disruptions linked to Toyota’s recent troubles. Less easy to explain is the recent drop in consumer confidence and the dampening effect this has on sales. We will have to wait until March to see if February is an aberration or a fundamental sign that the recovery in sales will be more subdued than hoped.”
The combined monthly U.S. market share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors (GM) domestic nameplates is estimated to be 44.5 percent in February 2010, down from 45.2 percent in February 2009 and down from 45.6 percent in January 2010.
"Toyota’s market share will be the lowest since July 2005, and is expected to drop to 12.6 percent -- but many of its Asian competitors benefitted from its recall woes," commented Michelle Krebs, Senior Analyst of Edmunds' AutoObserver.com. "Hyundai and Nissan are predicted to have their highest U.S. market share."
Edmunds.com predicts Chrysler will sell 67,000 units in February 2010, down 20.2 percent compared to February 2009 but up 18.2 percent from January 2010. This would result in a new car market share of 8.5 percent for Chrysler in February 2010, down from 12.2 percent in February 2009 but up from 8.1 percent as in January 2010.
Edmunds.com predicts Ford will sell 136,000 units in February 2010, up 35.3 percent compared to February 2009 and up 18.9 percent from January 2010. This would result in a new car market share of 17.3 percent of new car sales in February 2010 for Ford, up from 14.6 percent in February 2009 and up from 16.5 percent in January 2010.
Edmunds.com predicts GM will sell 147,000 units in February 2010, up 16.2 percent compared to February 2009 and up 0.2 percent from January 2010. GM's market share is expected to be 18.7 percent of new vehicle sales in February 2010, up from 18.4 percent in February 2009 but down from 21.0 percent in January 2010.
Edmunds.com predicts Honda will sell 89,000 units in February 2010, up 24.1 percent from February 2009 and up 31.6 percent from January 2010. Honda’s market share is expected to be 11.3 percent in February 2010, up from 10.4 percent in February 2009 and up from 9.7 percent in January 2010.
Edmunds.com predicts Hyundai will sell 66,000 units in February 2010, up 24.7 percent from February 2009 and up 24.9 percent from January 2010. Hyundai’s market share is expected to be 8.4 percent in February 2010, up from 7.7 percent in February 2009 and up from 7.6 percent in January 2010.
Edmunds.com predicts Nissan will sell 75,000 units in February 2010, up 38.1 percent from February 2009 and up 19.7 percent from January 2010. Nissan's market share is expected to be 9.5 percent in February 2010, up from 7.9 percent in February 2009 and up from 9.0 percent in January 2010.
Edmunds.com predicts Toyota will sell 99,000 units in February 2010, down 10.1 percent from February 2009 and down 0.2 percent from January 2010. Toyota's market share is expected to be 12.6 percent in February 2010, down from 15.9 percent in February 2009 and down from 14.2 percent in January 2010.
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Edmunds.com Inc. publishes four Web sites that empower, engage and educate automotive consumers, enthusiasts and insiders. Edmunds.com, the premier online resource for automotive consumer information, launched in 1995 as the first automotive information Web site. InsideLine.com is the most-read automotive enthusiast Web site. CarSpace is an automotive social networking Web site. AutoObserver.com provides insightful automotive industry commentary and analysis. Edmunds.com Inc. is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, and maintains a satellite office in suburban Detroit. Follow Edmunds.com on Twitter @edmunds and fan Edmunds.com on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/edmunds.