2009 Tire Shipments Revised to Drop Sixteen Percent
Sharper Decline In Original Equipment Tires Cited
WASHINGTON, Aug. 10 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- Tire shipments are projected to drop by approximately 16 percent in 2009 mainly as a result of a nearly 45 percent decline in Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) passenger tires and almost 43 percent drop in OEM Commercial truck tires, according to the Rubber Manufacturers Association.
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Total 2009 tire shipments are projected to decline approximately 45 million units to 237 million units. This level is approximately 84 million units less than the peak of 321 million units in 2000. The decrease in tire shipments reflects the recent struggles of automotive manufacturers, low consumer confidence, high unemployment, and depressed home values.
Vehicle miles travelled seem to have stabilized and domestic economic conditions for both the consumer and commercial sectors appear to have bottomed and are poised for a rebound in 2010. The tire industry is expected to realize a nearly 8 percent growth in 2010 reaching the 260 million unit level.
RMA's Tire Market Analysis Committee forecast for key categories and their respective segments for 2008 include:
-- Original Equipment Passenger Tires: Large decreases in domestic
vehicle production as a result of auto manufacturer production
shutdowns and bankruptcy reorganizations will result in a nearly 46
percent decrease in 2009 shipments to approximately 21 million units.
With the economy predicted to emerge from the recession in 2010, a
rebound in vehicle sales and subsequent vehicle production is
anticipated, which will result in a nearly 11 million increase in OE
tire shipments in 2010. Note that this projection does not account
for any changes to the auto industry as a result of further federal
intervention or consumer incentive programs.
-- Original Equipment Light Truck (LT) Tires: This category will
experience an approximate 12 percent decrease, or 400,000 units, in
2009 to nearly 2.6 million units due to slower economic conditions and
its impact on the commercial sectors which utilize light truck
vehicles. There is continued consumer demand for vehicle fitments
with P-Metric passenger tires in place of LT tires and as the economy
gradually recovers in 2010, a nearly 100,000 unit gain is anticipated.
-- Original Equipment Medium/Wide-Base/Heavy On-Highway Commercial Truck
Tires: Given the downward revisions in the economic conditions in the
commercial sector, a nearly 44 percent decline to approximately 2.2
million units is anticipated for 2009 - a decrease of over 1.6 million
units. The economic rebound anticipated for 2010 along with pent up
demand for vehicles is projected to result in a net gain of
approximately 500,000 units increase in shipments.
-- Replacement Passenger Tire: As a result of the protracted economic
downturn and the onset of economic recovery pushed closer to 2010, the
market will realize another decrease of nearly 9 percent, or
approximately 18 million units, reaching a level of 176 million units.
Growth is anticipated to resume in 2010 with the replacement sector
estimated to increase by approximately 5 million units, or slightly
better than 3 percent, in tandem with the projected economic growth in
the consumer sector.
-- Replacement Light Truck Tire: Although the number of vehicles for this
market remains steady and largely represented by small commercial
vehicles, further declines in economic conditions is forecasted to
contribute to a nearly 18 percent decline in replacement LT tire
shipments in 2009 to the 24 million unit level. An increase of nearly
8 percent is anticipated in 2010 in keeping with commercial economic
forecasts.
-- Replacement Medium/Wide-Base/Heavy On-Highway Commercial Truck Tires:
The market will realize another decrease of over 3 million units in
2009 to approximately 12 million units as a result of the protracted
recovery. Given the uneven economic rebound forecast for 2010, this
market is expected to increase by less than 1 million units to nearly
13 million units.
The Rubber Manufacturers Association is the national trade association for the rubber products industry. Its members include more than 60 companies that manufacture various rubber products, including tires, hoses, belts, seals, molded goods, and other finished rubber products. All RMA press releases are available at www.rma.org.
RMA's Tire Market Analysis Committee is comprised of tire market professionals representing the major U.S. tire manufacturers, which account for more than 90 percent of all U.S. tire shipments. Their analyses and forecasts of current and future industry activity include a review of RMA tire industry and economic data, government trade figures, and vehicle sales and production. TMAC develops its consensus view for tire demand from this process. The views expressed in this release are not the sole opinion of any one committee member, member company, or RMA representative.
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