Yes, New Auto Plants Will Be Built

Washington DC June 15, 2009; The AIADA newsletter reported that one man's poison is another man's meat, writes Forbes' Jerry Flint. The collapse of General Motors and Chrysler eventually will mean more sales, lots more sales, for carmakers outside the U.S. and perhaps Ford, too. And likely as not, this means the internationals will be building more plants in the U.S. or North America, including Canada and Mexico.

It's reasonable to think that GM, probably reduced to Chevrolet and Cadillac in a few years, will be good for 10 percent of the market, or 1.3 million sales in a 13 million year.

As for Chrysler, it's reasonable to figure a 7 percent market share, or 900,000 sales in some future 13 million sales year.

Flint writes that sooner or later, vehicle sales will climb again. And some new plants will be needed. Given the excess capacity now at most auto companies, it is reasonable to think that up to four new assembly plants will be needed when recovery comes.

Right now the auto industry is in a state of collapse. But when you look at the numbers you can see a better day coming, new auto plants rising, and more hiring. The industry isn't dead; it's going through a change.

To read Flint's full commentary at Forbes,click here.