Edmunds.com Forecasts September Auto Sales: Predicts Sales Rate Last Seen in Early ‘90s
SANTA MONICA, Calif.--This month's new vehicle sales (including fleet sales) are expected to be 1.05 million units, a 19.7 percent decrease from September 2007 and a 15.7 percent decrease from August 2008, according to Edmunds.com, the premier online resource for automotive information.
"February 1993 was the last time that fewer than one million new vehicles were sold in a month, and we’re coming remarkably close to that volume again," observed Jesse Toprak, Executive Director of Industry Analysis for Edmunds.com. "Traditionally, October sales are even worse than they are in September, so we don’t likely have much to look forward to next month.”
September 2008 had 24 selling days, one less than last September 2007. When adjusted for this difference, sales decreased 16.4 percent from September 2007. (The chart below sets forth other unadjusted and adjusted comparisons.)
|
Change from September 2007 (Adjusted for less selling days) |
Change from September 2007 (Unadjusted for less selling days) |
|||
| Chrysler | -33.8% | -36.5% | ||
| Ford | -21.9% | -25.4% | ||
| GM | -20.7% | -23.9% | ||
| Honda | -2.2% | -6.1% | ||
| Nissan | -7.8% | -11.5% | ||
| Toyota | -14.1% | -17.5% | ||
| Industry Total | -16.4% | -19.7% |
"The automakers and dealers tell us the credit crunch is the number one reason for the drop in sales. People want to buy cars but can't get financing,” commented Michelle Krebs, Senior Editor of Edmunds' AutoObserver.com. "Plus consumer confidence, which is waning in light of the near-collapse of the financial sector, is another critical factor that just isn't there."
The combined monthly U.S. market share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors (GM) domestic nameplates is estimated to be 47.1 percent in September 2008, down from 51.9 percent in September 2007 and up from 45.7 percent in August 2008.
Edmunds.com predicts Chrysler will sell 101,000 units in September 2008, down 36.5 percent compared to September 2007 and down 7.5 percent from August 2008. This would result in a new car market share of 9.7 percent for Chrysler in September 2008, down from 12.2 percent in September 2007 and up from 8.8 percent in August 2008.
Edmunds.com predicts Ford will sell 137,000 units in September 2008, down 25.1 percent compared to September 2007 and down 9.6 percent from August 2008. This would result in a new car market share of 13.1 percent of new car sales in September 2008 for Ford, down from 14.0 percent in September 2007 and up from 12.2 percent in August 2008.
Edmunds.com predicts GM will sell 255,000 units in September 2008, down 23.9 percent compared to September 2007 and down 17.0 percent from August 2008. GM's market share is expected to be 24.3 percent of new vehicle sales in September 2008, down from 25.6 percent in September 2007 and down from 24.7 percent in August 2008.
Edmunds.com predicts Honda will sell 119,000 units in September 2008, down 6.1 percent from September 2007 and down 18.7 percent from August 2008. Honda’s market share is expected to be 11.4 percent in September 2008, up from 9.7 percent in September 2007 and down from 11.8 percent in August 2008.
Edmunds.com predicts Nissan will sell 83,000 units in September 2008, down 11.5 percent from September 2007 and down 23.1 percent from August 2008. Nissan's market share is expected to be 7.9 percent in September 2008, up from 7.2 percent in September 2007 and down from 8.7 percent in August 2008.
Edmunds.com predicts Toyota will sell 176,000 units in September 2008, down 17.5 percent from September 2007 and down 16.9 percent from August 2008. Toyota's market share is expected to be 16.7 percent in September 2008, up from 16.3 percent in September 2007 and down from 17.0 percent in August 2008.
About Edmunds Inc. (http://www.edmunds.com/help/about/)
Edmunds Inc. publishes four Web sites that empower, engage and educate automotive consumers, enthusiasts and insiders. Edmunds.com, the premier online resource for automotive consumer information, launched in 1995 as the first automotive information Web site. Its most popular feature, the Edmunds.com True Market Value®, is relied upon by millions of people seeking current transaction prices for new and used vehicles. Edmunds.com was named "Best Car Research Site" by Forbes ASAP, has been selected by consumers as the "Most Useful Web Site" according to every J.D. Power and Associates New Autoshopper.com StudySM, was ranked first in the Survey of Car-Shopping Web Sites by The Wall Street Journal and was rated "#1" in Keynote's study of third-party automotive Web sites. Inside Line launched in 2005 and is the most-read automotive enthusiast Web site. CarSpace launched in 2006 and is an automotive social networking Web site and home to the oldest and most established automotive community. AutoObserver.com launched in 2007 and provides insightful automotive industry commentary and analysis. Edmunds Inc. is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, and maintains a satellite office in suburban Detroit.