Fleet Managers Will Determine the Growth Rate of Commercial Hybrid Vehicle Markets, According to ABI Research

NEW YORK--As fuel supply and emissions concerns continue to attract attention, the role of hybrid drive technology is gradually getting more visibility. In the consumer market, individuals can choose hybrid technology on an increasing variety of vehicles, based on personal preference as much as simple economics. In the commercial vehicle world, the choice is made by fleet managers who face a tough business question: will the total cost of ownership of a vehicle equipped with hybrid technology be less than that of an equivalent conventional vehicle?

“The question of a hybrid’s total cost of ownership is not an easy one to answer,” says ABI Research principal analyst David Alexander. “Calculations have to be made for the life of the vehicle – anything from five to ten years or even longer. With prototypes running on test for only a couple of years so far, there is considerable uncertainty in projecting the maintenance requirements and component lifetime for some very new vehicle technology.”

There is a steadily growing list of hybrid systems available for commercial vehicles. Parallel and series electric, and parallel and series hydraulic are each aiming at specific market niches, and each has measurable benefits and known costs. The costs are expected to come down as the technology matures and the volumes grow, but that will not happen until purchasing managers have greater confidence in the operational characteristics.

The results from initial testing look good. Fuel savings and reduced emissions are being measured, and maintenance logs show lower costs, especially for brakes. But ABI Research cautions that the results are very specific to duty cycle, and there have been instances where hybrid drive technology has proved to be less appropriate than conventional diesel engine power.

Systems suppliers such as Eaton, Bosch-Rexroth, Allison Transmission, Enova Systems, and Azure Dynamics have shown that they can work with all the major manufacturers to deliver technology that works. It is now up to fleet managers to identify where their operations can best take advantage of commercial hybrid drive technology. If the current economic conditions continue, fuel costs increase, and more government incentives are introduced, that decision is expected to get easier.

“Commercial Hybrid Vehicles” (http://www.abiresearch.com/products/market_research/Commercial_Hybrid _Electric_Vehicles), a new study from ABI Research, provides an analysis of global market trends, cost and technological evaluations of different approaches and strategies used by hybrid developers, and discusses existing product announcements and design wins. It forms part of the Automotive Alternative Powertrain Research Service (http://www.abiresearch.com/products/service/Automotive_Alternative _Powertrain_Research_Service). (Due to their length, URLs may need to be copied/pasted into your Internet browser's address field. Remove the extra space if one exists.)

Founded in 1990 and headquartered in New York, ABI Research maintains global operations supporting annual research programs, intelligence services, and market reports in broadband and multimedia, RFID and M2M, wireless connectivity, mobile wireless, transportation, and emerging technologies. For information, visit www.abiresearch.com, or call +1.516.624.2500.