NASCAR (DAYTONA) - 'In The Loop'

Johnson Chipping Away At Gordon’s Lead

Though Jimmie Johnson won and led 147 laps at Martinsville Speedway last Sunday, only a dent was put into Jeff Gordon’s point lead.

Johnson gained 15 points on Gordon to cut the lead to 53. The battle continues Sunday in the Pep Boys Auto 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway, and a similar outcome is certainly possible.

Actually, the Loop Data statistics suggest Johnson will slowly drain Gordon’s points lead in three of the next four races. The question is: Will it be enough?

Johnson leads Gordon in Driver Rating at the next three tracks, but the advantage is slim at each:

Driver Rating at Next Three Tracks Track Johnson Gordon Atlanta 118.3 94.7 Texas 99.9 92.3 Phoenix 112.2 107.3

Only at Homestead does Gordon have a better Driver Rating than Johnson – 83.7 to 75.5.

Combining each driver’s performance over the next four tracks since 2005 (NASCAR began using at-track scoring loops for statistical purposes in 2005), Johnson holds a slight edge in most categories. Here’s the four-track combined breakdown:

Combined Pre-Race Loop Data Over Next Four Tracks ARP %FL LT15 DR Johnson 9.1 7.8 82.7% 106.1 Gordon 11.9 5.2 70.6% 96.4 ARP: Avg. Running Position %FL: Percentage of Fastest Laps %LT15: Percentage of Laps in the Top 15 DR: Driver Rating

The stats point to what looks like an interesting race at Homestead-Miami Speedway. If the past is consistent, the standings could be near-deadlocked going into the final race of the season.

This weekend is another good chance – if not the best chance – for Johnson to gain ground.

Though Johnson had two consecutive wins at Martinsville going into that race, Gordon had five consecutive top fives. At Atlanta, the success gap is widened for Johnson:

Jimmie Johnson at Atlanta Motor Speedway (2005-2007) Date Finish ARP FLR LT15 DR 3/05 2 1.7 65 100.0% 139.6 10/05 16 12.6 0 65.8% 84.6 3/06 6 7.5 7 97.5% 103.0 10/06 2 3.4 24 100.0% 120.9 3/07 1 2.0 54 99.7% 143.2 Total 5.4 5.4 150 92.6% 118.3 ARP: Avg. Running Position FLR: Fastest Laps Run LT15: Percentage of Laps in the Top 15 DR: Driver Rating

Jeff Gordon at Atlanta Motor Speedway (2005-2007) Date Finish ARP FLR LT15 DR 3/05 39 39.7 0 0.0% 27.6 10/05 2 5.1 16 96.9% 116.1 3/06 4 8.7 6 90.5% 100.5 10/06 6 5.3 22 100.0% 115.6 3/07 12 9.2 25 69.8% 113.7 Total 12.6 13.6 69 71.4% 94.7

* * * * * * A side story to this weekend: Juan Pablo Montoya. Montoya picked up his first career NASCAR NEXTEL Cup Series top-five at Atlanta in March, and vaulted past David Ragan to the top of the Raybestos Rookie of the Year standings for the first time. Below are his stats from that race:

Juan Pablo Montoya at Atlanta Motor Speedway Date Finish ARP FLR LT15 DR 3/07 5 9.8 18 88.6% 103.1