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Harley-Davidson Reports 2007 Third Quarter Results


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MILWAUKEE, Oct. 19, 2007 -- Harley-Davidson, Inc. today announced its results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2007. Revenue for the quarter was $1.54 billion compared to $1.64 billion in the year ago quarter, a 5.8 percent decrease. Net income for the quarter was $265.0 million compared to $312.7 million, a decrease of 15.3 percent versus the third quarter of 2006. Third quarter diluted earnings per share were $1.07, a 10.8 percent decrease compared to last year's $1.20. During the third quarter the Company repurchased $509 million of its common stock.

"Harley-Davidson's third quarter financial results are disappointing but not unexpected. In early September, we announced that we would reduce planned motorcycle shipments for the rest of 2007, and our results for the quarter are consistent with the Company's revised guidance," said Jim Ziemer, Chief Executive Officer of Harley-Davidson, Inc.

"Worldwide retail sales of Harley-Davidson(R) motorcycles during the third quarter were virtually flat with the third quarter of 2006, down 0.2 percent. U.S. retail sales continued to be sluggish, finishing down 2.5 percent for the quarter, while retail sales in our international markets grew 8.8 percent during the period," said Ziemer.

For the full year of 2007, the Company expects a shipment range of 328,000 to 332,000 Harley-Davidson motorcycles, compared to 349,196 units in 2006. The Company also expects a modest decline in revenue and lower operating margin in 2007. Diluted earnings per share for the full year are expected to decrease 4 to 6 percent compared to 2006.

Looking ahead to 2008, the Company anticipates that the U.S. retail motorcycle environment will continue to be challenging. It expects moderate revenue growth, lower operating margin and diluted earnings per share to grow between 4 and 7 percent compared to 2007.

"For the longer term, I am optimistic and confident about our future," said Ziemer. "Harley-Davidson has a strong business model, and we will continue to manage the Company in a manner that strengthens our brand and contributes to lasting success for all of our stakeholders," said Ziemer.

Motorcycles and Related Products Segment - Third Quarter Results

Revenue from Harley-Davidson motorcycles was $1.18 billion, a decrease of $110.7 million or 8.6 percent versus the same period last year. Shipments of Harley-Davidson motorcycles totaled 86,535 units, a decrease of 10,511 units or 10.8 percent compared to last year's third quarter.

Revenue from Parts and Accessories (P&A), which consists of Genuine Motor Parts and Genuine Motor Accessories, totaled $251.5 million, an increase of $3.1 million or 1.2 percent over the year-ago quarter. Revenue from General Merchandise, which consists of MotorClothes(R) apparel and collectibles, totaled $83.2 million, an increase of $11.9 million or 16.7 percent over the year-ago quarter.

Gross margin for the third quarter of 2007 was 38.4 percent of revenue compared to 39.9 percent for the third quarter last year. Third quarter operating margin decreased to 23.2 percent from 26.5 percent in the third quarter of 2006.

Motorcycle Retail Sales Data

During the third quarter, worldwide retail sales of Harley-Davidson motorcycles decreased 0.2 percent compared to the third quarter of 2006. U.S. retail sales of Harley-Davidson motorcycles decreased 2.5 percent for the quarter. The heavyweight motorcycle market in the U.S. decreased 4.4 percent for the same period.

Retail sales of Harley-Davidson motorcycles grew 8.8 percent in the Company's international markets during the third quarter of 2007 compared to the third quarter of 2006. Third quarter retail sales increased 10.7 percent in Europe; Canada was down 7.7 percent; and Japan was up 9.1 percent. All other international markets combined were up 20.8 percent.

During the first nine months of 2007, worldwide retail sales of Harley- Davidson motorcycles decreased 0.9 percent compared to the prior year. In the U.S., Harley-Davidson dealer retail sales decreased 4.7 percent for the first nine months of the year; international sales increased by 12.9 percent for the same period. The U.S. heavyweight motorcycle market was down 4.4 percent for the first nine months of 2007.

  Data is listed in the accompanying tables.

  Financial Services Segment

Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS) reported third quarter operating income of $49.5 million, a decrease of $5.7 million or 10.4 percent, compared to the year ago quarter. The decrease is primarily due to a lower securitization gain in the third quarter of 2007 versus the third quarter of 2006.

Income Tax Rate

The Company's third quarter effective income tax rate was 35.5 percent compared to 36.0 percent in the same quarter last year. This decrease primarily reflects the reinstatement of the federal research and development tax credit.

Harley-Davidson, Inc. - Nine Month Results

For the first nine months of 2007, revenue totaled $4.34 billion, a 1.0 percent increase over the year-ago period. Diluted earnings per share were $2.95, a decrease of 0.3 percent compared to the same period last year.

Through the first nine months of this year, shipments of Harley-Davidson motorcycles were 249,413 units, a 2.7 percent decrease compared to last year's 256,348 units. Harley-Davidson motorcycle revenue was $3.33 billion, which is flat compared to last year. P&A revenue totaled $703.1 million, a 2.9 percent increase over last year's $683.1 million. General Merchandise revenue totaled $232.0 million, a 12.2 percent increase compared to $206.9 million during the same period in 2006.

HDFS operating income was $173.6 million, a 6.5 percent increase over last year's $163.1 million.

Cash Flow

Cash and marketable securities totaled $456.7 million as of September 30, 2007. Cash flow from operations was $1.37 billion, and capital expenditures were $139.4 million during the first nine months of 2007. For the full year of 2007, capital expenditures are now expected to be between $250 million and $275 million.

Stock Repurchase

The Company repurchased 9.7 million shares of its common stock at a cost of $509.0 million during the third quarter of 2007. On a year to date basis through September 30, 2007, the Company has repurchased 17.3 million shares for a total cost of $1.00 billion. On September 30, 2007, the Company has 241.5 million shares of common stock outstanding.

As of September 30, 2007, there are 6.2 million shares remaining on a board-approved share repurchase authorization. An additional board-approved share repurchase authorization is in place to offset option exercises.

Company Background

Harley-Davidson, Inc. is the parent company for the group of companies doing business as Harley-Davidson Motor Company, Buell Motorcycle Company and Harley-Davidson Financial Services. Harley-Davidson Motor Company, the only major U.S.-based motorcycle manufacturer, produces heavyweight motorcycles and offers a complete line of motorcycle parts, accessories, apparel, and general merchandise. Buell Motorcycle Company produces sport motorcycles. Harley- Davidson Financial Services provides wholesale and retail financing and insurance programs to Harley-Davidson dealers and their retail customers.

                            Harley-Davidson, Inc.
                 Condensed Consolidated Statements of Income
                                 (Unaudited)
                   (In thousands, except per share amounts)

                               Three months ended      Nine months ended
                               September  September   September   September
                               30, 2007   24, 2006    30, 2007    24, 2006

  Net revenue                $1,541,401  $1,635,916  $4,340,494  $4,298,053
  Gross profit                  591,353     652,255   1,619,566   1,661,795
  Operating expenses            233,068     218,243     639,512     590,503
    Operating income from
     motorcycles & related
     products                   358,285     434,012     980,054   1,071,292

  Financial services income      98,471      97,344     319,964     291,812
  Financial services expense     49,002      42,154     146,349     128,734
  Operating income from
   financial services            49,469      55,190     173,615     163,078

  Corporate expenses              2,292       5,215      13,763      16,723
  Income from operations        405,462     483,987   1,139,906   1,217,647
  Investment income and
   other, net                     5,353       4,659      19,432      17,861
  Income before provision
   for income taxes             410,815     488,646   1,159,338   1,235,508
  Provision for income taxes    145,849     175,912     411,572     444,781
  Net income                   $264,966    $312,734    $747,766    $790,727

  Earnings per common share:
    Basic                         $1.07       $1.20       $2.96       $2.96
    Diluted                       $1.07       $1.20       $2.95       $2.96

  Weighted-average common shares:
    Basic                       247,057     260,270     252,513     266,772
    Diluted                     247,614     261,229     253,263     267,525

  Cash dividends per common
   share                          $0.30       $0.21       $0.76       $0.60

                            Harley-Davidson, Inc.
                    Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets
                               (In thousands)

                                        (Unaudited)             (Unaudited)
                                         September    December   September
                                          30, 2007    31, 2006    24, 2006

  ASSETS
  Current Assets:
      Cash and cash equivalents           $401,385    $238,397    $506,139
      Marketable securities                 55,355     658,133     446,543
      Accounts receivable, net             185,208     143,049     149,951
      Finance receivables held for sale    431,843     547,106     100,109
      Finance receivables held for
       investment, net                   1,275,590   1,554,260   1,273,841
      Inventories                          376,950     287,798     281,536
      Other current assets                 130,126     121,890     124,837
  Total current assets                   2,856,457   3,550,633   2,882,956

  Finance receivables held for
   investment, net                         861,138     725,957     706,695
  Other long-term assets                 1,253,365   1,255,560   1,443,411
                                        $4,970,960  $5,532,150  $5,033,062

  LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY
  Current liabilities:
      Accounts payable & accrued
       liabilities                        $962,250    $763,186    $880,294
      Current portion of finance debt      250,168     832,491      96,374
  Total current liabilities              1,212,418   1,595,677     976,668

  Finance debt                             980,000     870,000     900,000
  Postretirement healthcare benefits       207,957     201,126      70,571
  Other long-term liabilities              207,582     108,610     239,452

  Total shareholders' equity             2,363,003   2,756,737   2,846,371
                                        $4,970,960  $5,532,150  $5,033,062

                            Harley-Davidson, Inc.
               Condensed Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows
                                 (Unaudited)
                                (In thousands)

                                                   Nine months ended
                                             September 30,     September 24,
                                                 2007              2006

  Net cash provided by operating activities   $1,368,257        $1,283,580

  Cash flows from investing activities:
    Capital expenditures                        (139,437)         (137,468)
    Finance receivables held for
     investment, net                             (92,147)          (75,710)
    Collection of retained
     securitization interests                     87,827            73,974
    Net change in marketable securities          604,927           464,641
    Other, net                                     1,696             2,512
  Net cash provided by investing activities      462,866           327,949

  Cash flows from financing activities:
    Net decrease in finance-credit
     facilities and commercial paper            (506,938)         (208,996)
    Dividends                                   (189,093)         (158,738)
    Purchase of common stock for treasury     (1,000,133)         (910,957)
    Excess tax benefits from share-
     based payments                                3,057             3,550
    Issuance of common stock under employee
     stock option plans                           21,429            25,882
  Net cash used by financing activities       (1,671,678)       (1,249,259)

  Effect of exchange rate changes on cash and
   cash equivalents                                3,543             2,894

  Net increase in cash and cash equivalents      162,988           365,164

  Cash and cash equivalents:
    At beginning of period                       238,397           140,975
    At end of period                            $401,385          $506,139

                         Net Revenue and Motorcycle
                                Shipment Data
                                 (Unaudited)

                                Three months ended      Nine months ended
                              September   September   September   September
                              30, 2007    24, 2006    30, 2007    24, 2006
  NET REVENUE (in thousands)
  Harley-Davidson(R)
   motorcycles               $1,182,628  $1,293,358  $3,328,309  $3,329,700
  Buell(R) motorcycles           22,527      21,423      72,795      74,826
  Parts & Accessories           251,499     248,448     703,107     683,100
  General Merchandise            83,185      71,251     232,011     206,873
  Other                           1,562       1,436       4,272       3,554
                             $1,541,401  $1,635,916  $4,340,494  $4,298,053

  HARLEY-DAVIDSON UNITS
  Motorcycle shipments:
    United States                65,756      80,398     182,447     198,720
    Export                       20,779      16,648      66,966      57,628
  Total                          86,535      97,046     249,413     256,348

  Motorcycle product mix:
    Touring                      28,461      36,041      84,934      90,914
    Custom                       39,488      44,096     109,576     116,604
    Sportster(R)                 18,586      16,909      54,903      48,830
  Total                          86,535      97,046     249,413     256,348

  BUELL UNITS
  Motorcycle shipments:
    Buell                         2,639       2,529       8,376       9,105

               Retail Sales of Harley-Davidson Motorcycles
                         Year to Date September
                                                             2007    2006
  United States                                            215,092  225,623
  Europe*                                                   32,594   28,131
  Japan                                                     10,028    9,707
  Canada                                                    12,855   12,195
  All other markets                                         13,393   10,989

  Total Retail Sales of Harley-Davidson Motorcycles        283,962  286,645

  Data Source (subject to update)

Data source for all 2006 and 2007 retail sales figures shown above is sales warranty and registration information provided by Harley-Davidson dealers and compiled by the Company. The Company must rely on information that its dealers supply concerning retail sales, and this information is subject to revision.

Only Harley-Davidson(R) motorcycles are included in the Harley-Davidson Motorcycle Sales data.

  * Data for Europe include Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France,
    Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden,
    Switzerland, and the United Kingdom

                         Heavyweight Market Data
                      Data Through Month Indicated
                                                             2007     2006

  United States(1) (September)                             443,511  463,859
  Europe(2) (August)                                       322,102  306,197

  (1) United States industry data includes 651+cc models, derived from
      submission of motorcycle retail sales by each major manufacturer to an
      independent third party.

  (2) Europe data includes Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France,
      Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden,
      Switzerland, and the United Kingdom.  Industry retail motorcycle
      registration data includes 651+cc models, derived from information
      provided by Giral S.A., an independent agency.