Tracking Health Risks Over 24 Years, The Harris Poll Finds U.S. Adults Indicate Massive Increases in Obesity, Greatly Increased Seat Belt Use and Modest Decline in Smoking
ROCHESTER, N.Y., Feb. 27, 2007 -- Every year at about this time, The Harris Poll(R) asks a cross-section of U.S. adults about some of their most important health risks and their healthy and unhealthy behaviors, specifically their weight, seat belt use and smoking habits. The good news is that seat belt use in the front seats of cars continues to increase, and smoking has declined. The bad news is that obesity continues to increase dramatically and the rate of decline in smoking is relatively modest and has not changed significantly for the last 10 years, contrary to much that has been written about it.
The latest survey is based on a nationwide telephone survey of 1,013 U.S. adults who were interviewed between February 6 and 12, 2007. While this year's numbers are very similar to the 2006 results, the trend -- using aggregate data for each five-year period since the early 1980s -- is more informative and more reliable.
Smoking
When Harris Interactive(R) began asking adults about their smoking habits in 1983, 30 percent of adults said they smoked cigarettes and, on average, 29 percent said they did so in the three surveys conducted between 1983 and 1985. Cigarette smoking fell to 27 percent from 1986 to 1990, to 25 percent from 1991 to 1995, and to 24 percent from 1996 to 2000. Since then, this figure has not fallen significantly. On average, 23 percent say they smoked from 2000 to 2005 and from 2006 to 2007.
Due to the bans on smoking in many offices and public spaces such as airports, restaurants and buses, smoking is much less visible than it used to be. However, the important news is not that smoking has declined, but how slow that decline has been. Other research has found that many young people still start to smoke in their teens and once they are hooked, it is extremely hard to break the habit.
Furthermore, the 23 percent of adults who smoke cigarettes understate the use of all tobacco products. In our latest survey, fully 28 percent of adults say they smoke cigarettes, pipes or cigars, or use chewing tobacco.
Obesity
Much has been written about the obesity epidemic. One of the most widely- reported comments in any Harris Poll, first made in 1994, was that "Americans are the fattest people on earth and are getting fatter every year." This is probably still true, even though many other affluent countries are also seeing very rapid increases in obesity, as they eat more and exercise less.
When these questions were first asked, the Body Mass Index (BMI) was not used and the most common measures of being overweight and obese were the Metropolitan Life tables, which are based on height, weight and body frame for adults ages 25 and older. In order to look at the long-term trends, we continue to use these measures. These trends, of course, are shocking. From 1983 to 1985, on average, The Harris Poll reported that 59 percent of adults aged 25 and over were overweight. The average for 2006 to 2007 is 81 percent who are overweight. From 1983 to 1985 The Harris Poll reported 15 percent were obese, which is defined as 20 percent or more overweight. The average for 2006 to 2007 is 37 percent who are obese. This is not just an increase of 22 percentage points; it is an increase of 147 percent. Over 80 million adult Americans are now obese. And there is no reason to believe that this number will not continue to increase.
Seat Belt use
The increase in seat belt use since the 1980s is an equally dramatic trend, but of course, a very positive one. In 1983, our first survey in this series found that only 19 percent of adults claimed that they always wore seat belts when in the front seat of a car. Now, the average for 2006 to 2007 is 86 percent.
It is a safe assumption that this huge increase in seat belt use has saved many thousands of lives and serious injuries. However, other research has shown that seat belt use is higher in some other countries. Furthermore, many other countries mandate seat belt use in all seats; not, as in most states in this country, in front seats only.
Health Risks and Education
This survey, like many previous surveys, finds a strong negative correlation between education and health risks. The more educated people are, the less likely they are to smoke, be obese or not use seat belts. The strongest correlation is with smoking. Only eight percent of people with post- graduate education and 10 percent of college graduates smoke. This compares to 34 percent of people with no college education and 23 percent of those with some college education (but who did not graduate) who say they smoke.
TABLE 1
HEALTH RISKS IN FIVE-YEAR INCREMENTS SINCE 1983
Smoke Obese Always Wear
Cigarettes Overweight (20%+ Overweight) Seatbelts
Averages For: % % % %
1983-1985
(3 years only) 29 59 15 29
1986-1990 27 61 17 60
1991-1995 25 67 19 71
1996-2000 24 75 28 76
2001-2005 23 78 32 83
2006-2007
(2 years only) 23 81 37 86
Notes: (1) Adults ages 18+ who smoke cigarettes (does not include use of
pipe, cigars or chewing tobacco)
(2) Adults ages 25+ who weigh more than their recommended weight
based on height and body frame, using the Metropolitan Life
tables.
(3) Adults ages 25+ who weigh 20 percent or more than their
recommended weight based on height and body frame, using the
Metropolitan Life tables.
(4) Claim to always wear seat belts in front seat of car.
Sample sizes vary from 2,019 adults for 2006-2007 to approximately 5,000 adults in the previous five-year periods.
TABLE 2
SMOKING, OVERWEIGHT AND SEAT BELT USE - TRENDS 1983 - 2007
Base: All adults
Smoke Are 20% or More Always Wear
Cigarettes Overweight Overweight* Seatbelts**
% % % %
1983 30 58 15 19
1984 28 56 N/A 27
1985 30 62 15 41
1986 27 59 N/A 55
1987 28 59 15 57
1988 26 64 18 60
1989 28 61 17 63
1990 26 64 16 65
1991 25 63 15 69
1992 24 66 N/A 70
1994 26 69 N/A 71
1995 25 71 22 73
1996 24 74 24 75
1997 26 72 27 74
1998 26 76 28 77
1999 24 74 27 77
2000 21 79 32 79
2001 25 76 32 81
2002 23 80 33 81
2003 24 80 33 85
2004 25 76 30 83
2005 19 77 30 86
2006 22 83 39 86
2007 24 79 36 87
* Adults ages 25 and over (for weight only).
** When in front seat of car
N/A=Not available.
Note 1: In almost all years the survey was conducted in January or
February.
Note 2: "Overweight" is based on the Metropolitan Life Tables using self-
reported weight, height and body frame (small, medium or large).
Like all self-reporting this is subject to error, but the
identical questions and methods were used in all these surveys.
Note 3: Poll not conducted in 1993.
TABLE 3
BODY MASS INDEX (BMI)
Base: All adults
Overweight Obese
% %
2005 59 23
2006 66 27
2007 63 23
TABLE 4
USE OF OTHER TOBACCO PRODUCTS
"Do you smoke a pipe or cigars or use chewing tobacco?"
Base: All adults
2006 2007
% %
Pipe 2 1
Cigars 4 3
Chewing tobacco 2 2
None 92 95
Smoke Cigarettes 22 24
Use any type of tobacco product
(including cigarettes) 26 28
TABLE 5
HEALTH RISKS AND EDUCATION
Highest Level of Education
Total High School Some College Post-
(2007) Or Less College Graduate Graduate
% % % % %
Smoke
Cigarettes 24 34 23 10 8
Obese
(1) Using
Metro-
politan
Life Table 36 41 39 24 22
(2) Using Body
Mass Index
(BMI) 23 30 22 15 16
Always Wear
Seat-Belt
in Front Seat 87 83 88 90 93
Methodology
This Harris Poll(R) was conducted by telephone within the United States between February 6 and 12, 2007 among 1,013 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region, number of adults in the household, size of place (urbanicity), number of phone lines in the household were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population.
All surveys are subject to several sources of error. These include: sampling error (because only a sample of a population is interviewed); measurement error due to question wording and/or question order, deliberately or unintentionally inaccurate responses, non-response (including refusals), interviewer effects (when live interviewers are used) and weighting.
With one exception (sampling error) the magnitude of the errors that result cannot be estimated. There is, therefore, no way to calculate a finite "margin of error" for any survey and the use of these words should be avoided.
With pure probability samples, with 100 percent response rates, it is possible to calculate the probability that the sampling error (but not other sources of error) is not greater than some number. With a pure probability sample of 1,013 adults one could say with a ninety-five percent probability that the overall results have a sampling error of +/-3 percentage points. However that does not take other sources of error into account.
These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
J 29495 Q 601, 605, 610, 615, 620, 625 About Harris Interactive
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