New Developments in Heavy Commercial Vehicle Markets

LONDON, February 23 -- Continuous development of new technologies in the heavy commercial vehicles (HCV) market in Europe is expected to be driven by the need to meet consumer demands for enhanced passenger safety and efficiency and to comply with changing legislative imperatives. At the same time, participants are expected to devise global rather than regionally oriented competitive strategies.

Legislation aiming to simplify the driving environment and boost safety levels is emerging as a fundamental influence on promising technologies in the HCV market. End users are also increasing pressure on participants to deliver products that will enhance and optimise productivity. Some emergent technologies, such as driver assistance systems (DAS) improve vehicle performance through abuse-reduction, while others such as automated manual transmission (AMT) reduce the clutch wear and fuel consumption.

To meet these consumer and legislative demands, manufacturers are being compelled to constantly innovate on new technology and further develop existing products," says Frost & Sullivan (http://transportation.frost.com) Research Analyst Mr. Oliver Dixon. "At various stages of development, emissions control, DAS and AMT are the three emergent technologies that are impacted the most by these demands."

Boosted by uptake in the lighter vehicle sector, AMT revenue is set to increase by about 240 per cent until 2014, expanding from its current size of EUR104.2 million to an estimated EUR523.3 million. Within the lighter vehicle sector, there are opportunities for new market entrants and for product differentiation.

While AMT is moving ahead fast, the EUR177.4 million DAS segment is still in a nascent stage of development. However, its substantial contribution to safety and productivity is expected to boost its adoption. Enhanced cost control and vehicle uptime features are expected to boost efficiency and prove immensely beneficial to truck operators.

Industry experts expect a phenomenal revenue growth of over 500 per cent with a large portion of this growth expected to result from consumer demand as opposed to legislative pressure. The merging of intelligent transport system (ITS) technology with DAS is expected to drive growth immensely as a vast market exists for external systems integration. In 2014, DAS revenues are poised to touch nearly EUR445.3 million.

Another sector deeply influenced by legislation is emissions compliance with the legislations being currently based on three different regional criteria - European Union (EU), North America free trade agreement (NAFTA) and Japan. Revenues in the emission control sector were estimated at EUR17.7 million in 2004, with a revenue potential of EUR253.3 million forecast for 2014.

"The development of a global protocol -expected to come into force in 2012 - is likely to offer the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) segment significant cost benefits, as it is anticipated to provide for a single global solution that is borne out of a single R&D budget," says Mr. Dixon.

Here, selective catalytic reduction (SCR) is unlikely to offer a solution to a single emissions protocol. Although 80 per cent of EU HCVs are set to adopt SCR, the resistance from the United States environmental protection agency (US EPA) to deploy an after treatment system is likely to challenge SCR use. It is likely to become a low price commodity product that is essentially regional in its focus.

Exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) is, however, favoured as a global solution when combined with high pressure injection research since it is more in line with the OEMs' pursuit of a global solution to emissions protocols.

"Within a decade, the HCV market is likely to be based around global demand, driven by global legislation and served by global OEMs. It is to this mindset that suppliers must now begin to address themselves," concludes Mr. Dixon.

If you are interested in a summary of this research service providing an introduction to the Emerging Technologies in the Heavy Commercial Vehicles Market, please send an email to Magdalena Oberland, Corporate Communications at magdalena.oberland@frost.com with the following information: full name, company name, title, country, contact telephone number, email. Upon receipt of the above information, the summary will be emailed to you.

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For further information, please contact:

    
    Magdalena Oberland
    Corporate Communications
    Frost & Sullivan
    P: +44-(0)-20-7915-7876
    E: magdalena.oberland@frost.com

Keywords in this release: Heavy commercial vehicles, HCVs, passenger safety, emissions control, driver assistance system, DAS, automated manual transmission, AMT, OEMs, vehicle uptime, intelligent transport system, ITS, selective catalytic reduction, SCR, exhaust gas recirculation, EGR,

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