Communication Protocols Poised for Strong Growth as Automotive and Electronic Worlds Converge

LONDON, January 14 -- Although a relatively new area, in-vehicle network architectures and associated in-car communication protocols are generating considerable excitement in the automotive industry. The advent of innovative vehicle applications has created a strong need for sophisticated protocols that can satisfactorily manage increasingly complex automotive electronics.

To this end, point-to-point wiring is, to a large extent, being replaced by bus systems in in-vehicle networks. Since the adoption of the controller area network (CAN) protocol in the early 1990s - now considered the industry standard - a multitude of communication protocols have been developed and implemented.

"The European communication protocols market is continuously fuelled by the introduction of new systems and by the generation of new functions based on the integration of already available systems," notes Frost & Sullivan's (http://transportation.frost.com) Transportation Practice Programme Manager Franck Leveque.

"Functions such as advanced driver assistance require an in-vehicle network architecture based on communications protocols, thereby providing impetus for this market."

Of the four dominant network types in the market - high speed and safety networks are still in their infancy. BMW's proprietary Byteflight solution is currently the only one to have been implemented. Frost & Sullivan expects the high speed and safety networks market to rapidly gain momentum at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 37 per cent. By the end of the forecast period (2010), it is expected to reach penetration rates of 31.5 per cent.

Among the low speed smart sensor networks, penetration rates for the CAN-B protocol have reached 100 per cent, and are not likely to decline over the forecast period (2004-2010). The strongest growth is currently being seen in high-speed multimedia networks - they are forecast to grow at a CAGR of just under 21 per cent to reach penetration rates of 30 per cent in 2010.

The market for general purpose networks currently comprises one protocol only - the CAN-C protocol. Here again, the existing penetration rates of 100 per cent are expected to stay the same throughout the forecast period, as a competitive protocol is unlikely to emerge during this time.

While the CAN communication protocol is the prevailing industry standard and has been adopted by almost all vehicle manufacturers, standardisation efforts are now underway for other protocols such as local interconnect network (LIN) or media oriented systems transport (MOST) so that they can be implemented more easily.

"While the CAN protocol is expected to maintain its 100 per cent market penetration, Frost & Sullivan expects that a multitude of communications protocols will emerge in the future catering to advanced applications such as next-generation safety or multimedia offerings," remarks Mr. Leveque.

For instance, the market for high speed and safety networks is set to see the launch of a new protocol, Flexray, in 2007. Penetration rates for this protocol are expected to be aggressive. It is likely to grow at a CAGR of just over 23 per cent to reach penetration of just under 21 per cent in 2010. Eventually, Flexray is likely to emerge as the dominant protocol for high speed and safety network types.

A competing protocol to Flexray, time triggered protocol (TTP), is expected to be introduced in the European in-vehicle network architectures market in 2008. However, it is unlikely to have a strong impact on the market, since most vehicle manufacturers have indicated that they are likely to favour Flexray.

Firewire is expected to dominate the field of multimedia although it is set to emerge only in 2007 for automotive applications. By 2010, its penetration rates are expected to touch 6.3 per cent. For general purpose as well as low speed smart sensor networks, it is expected that the CAN-C and CAN-B protocols will retain their dominance despite the implementation of LIN as a low-cost alternative to CAN-B.

The LIN protocol is expected to consolidate its position as a complementary sub-bus to the CAN-B protocol. LIN penetration rates are expected to rapidly grow from roughly 7 per cent in 2002 to 37.4 per cent in 2010 at a CAGR of around 21 per cent throughout the forecast period.

Despite the substantial potential offered by this market, vehicle manufacturers must keep in mind that in order to develop communication protocols and their subsequent applications in a commercially viable manner, they will need to collaborate with suppliers on interfaces. They must also work towards standardisation to effectively integrate the automotive and electronic worlds.

"Frost & Sullivan believes that standardising interfaces between various devices and the basic in-vehicle network architecture would provide vehicle manufacturers and suppliers with a very cost-effective way of implementing electronics in cars," says Mr. Leveque. "However, in order to differentiate themselves and their products, Frost & Sullivan recommends that vehicle manufacturers must further focus on competing on applications."

If you are interested in a summary of this research service providing an introduction to the Analysis of the European Automotive In-vehicle Network Architecture Markets, please send an email to Magdalena Oberland, Corporate Communications at magdalena.oberland@frost.com with the following information: full name, company name, title, country, contact telephone number, email. Upon receipt of the above information, the summary will be emailed to you.

Title: Analysis of the European Automotive In-vehicle Network Architecture Markets

Code: B318

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