Global Warming 'Probability Wheel' Web Tool Provides Important Perspective on 'The Day After Tomorrow'

Flash-based Tool Shows Likely Outcomes of More Realistic Temperature Increases

WASHINGTON, June 3 -- Moviegoers may not need to worry about an overnight Ice Age of the sort depicted in the new global-warming disaster movie "The Day After Tomorrow," but it still makes sense to focus on the devastating long-term consequences of slower temperature shifts due to global warming, according to Pam Solo, president of the nonpartisan and nonprofit Results for America (RFA), a project of the Civil Society Institute.

To illustrate the dangers of various rising-temperature scenarios, RFA today unveiled the "Global Warming Probability Wheel," which is available on the Web at http://www.resultsforamerica.org/environment/wheel.php. The Flash- based tool allows visitors to see for themselves the harm that would result to the Earth from relatively slow temperature increases ranging from less than two degrees to more than 10 degrees.

Civil Society President Pam Solo said: "Unlike the temperature shifts of up to 10 degrees a second depicted in 'The Day After Tomorrow,' the more likely scenario for our planet is that global warming will push up thermometer readings a few degrees over the next few decades. While this might seem like a less imminent danger, the reality is that the consequences of a slower shift in temperatures will be enormous -- unless steps are taken to rein in greenhouse gas emissions."

Set up as a game of roulette, the "Global Warming Probability Wheel" permits visitors to spin the wheel, which is divided into temperature increases ranging from under two degrees to over 10 degrees. A text box alongside the "Probability Wheel" explains the likely impact of each temperature increase scenario.

For example, the "Probability Wheel" indicates that a long-term temperature increase of more than 10 degrees "could bring widespread and catastrophic changes. The droughts, floods and heat waves likely to occur in any global warming scenario would be particularly intense. Ecosystems and human populations would have difficulty adapting to such a large and rapid temperature change -- ecosystems could be damaged by fire and insects and the food supply could be reduced by heat stress and diminished agricultural output. Over 10 million people could lose their homes in Bangladesh alone due to a three-foot rise in sea level."

The "Probability Wheel" explanation of the likely outcome of a less severe two-four degree increase in global temperature notes that "... Australia and Africa could suffer more frequent and extreme water shortages, while increased flooding might occur in Southeast Asia and along the Mississippi River ... Even at this relatively low level of warming, there could be a widespread increase in the risk of malaria and certain other diseases transmitted by mosquitoes."

Solo emphasized that RFA does not embrace a despairing gloom-and-doom outlook on global warming. She said: "We already have the know-how and tools to sharply reduce greenhouse gas emissions. America has the technology to deliver 40 mile per gallon gasoline consumption efficiency in cars and we should insist on that being the state of the art in auto manufacturing. Cities across the U.S. and the rest of the world have developed effective strategies to reduce automobile use through carpooling, mass transit and other tactics. We already know what we need to do to reduce reliance on Middle Eastern oil through stepped-up energy conservation."

Solo added: "Our message today is simple: If 'The Day After Tomorrow' scared you into worrying about global warming, that's a good first step. The next step is to take the time to learn the facts. Global warming can be stopped and most of the people who have the power to stop it work in area code '202.' It is time for concerned citizens to give them a call."

Also available from Results For America is a companion CD, "The Jury Is In," which documents the global warming problem and its likely consequences. To get a copy of the CD, use the Web-based email form at http://www.resultsforamerica.org/contact/index.php.

ABOUT RESULTS FOR AMERICA

Results for America (http://www.resultsforamerica.org/) is a project of the Civil Society Institute, which is based in Newton, Massachusetts. The mission of CSI is to serve as a catalyst for change by creating problem-solving interactions among people, and between communities, government and business, that can help to improve society. (Visit the Civil Society Institute on the Web at http://www.civilsocietyinstitute.org/.) RFA seeks to shape and tap the tremendous amount of community-level knowledge, experience and innovative action that could solve America's problems in four key areas, including "Clean Air, Clean Energy, Bright Future." RFA supports reducing our debilitating dependence on oil and fossil fuels and making sensible investments in alternative energy sources.