Future Vehicle Technology
By Carey Russ (c) 2003 I recently spent a long, intense day at the ``Challenge Bibendum,'' held this year at the track formerly known as Sears Point, now as Infineon Raceway, near Sonoma, California. As might be surmised from the name, it was sponsored by tire maker Michelin. However, it focused not on tires but on future transportation technology. This shouldn't be surprising - the main forms of personal transportation for the foreseeable future will run on rubber tires, as do automobiles today. Despite its emphasis on environmentally-friendly transportation -- its motto was ``Mobility must be developed with a respect for the environment'' -- Challenge Bibendum was more than a congregation of small, cottage-industry ``green'' organizations. While there were some small makers of alternative-technology vehicles involved, the majority of exhibitors had very familiar names. You probably haven't heard of AC Propulsion, Anuvu, Courreges, Ebus, ECD Ovonics, Peter Sargent, SAM, Solar Motions, or The Ecological Engine Company. General Motors, Ford, DaimlerChrysler, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Volkswagen-Audi, Hyundai, Volvo, and BMW are perhaps a little more familiar. If the wide range of exhibits, demonstrations, and test vehicles present was indicative, the future won't necessarily be all that different from the present. Expect to see the same sort of cars, trucks, and SUVs as you see today - personal helicopters, jet backpacks, nuclear-powered hovercraft, and teleportation beams belong in parallel universes, not this one. Styling is, of course, unpredictable, as are ever-changing vehicular categories. But it's likely that cars will look like cars for at least the next twenty-five years. What will be different will be found under the hood and in the fuel tank. There was a consensus among the participants that the future will belong to electric vehicles powered by hydrogen fuel cells. But that is the long-term future. Don't expect commercially-available fuel-cell vehicles until 2010, and then only for semi-experimental (``beta test'') small-scale fleet use. Yes, there are fuel cell vehicles on the road today, but you couldn't afford one. Two related parentheticals: First, as pointed out by a GM representative, any new technology needs a supporting infrastructure, and the products of that technology need to fit consumer needs - people won't buy cars (or anything else) that they can't actually use. Case in point: battery-electric vehicles, including GM's EV1. Secondly, a Toyota spokesman mentioned that the Toyota FCHV hydrogen fuel cell vehicle was a ``million-dollar car.'' How, he was asked, was that figure arrived at? Candidly, he said, the number was essentially pulled out of a hat. ``No vehicle accounting system can tell the truth because there are so many variables,'' including development costs for many new systems and some sort of infrastructure to for development and maintenance. The near future, the next fifteen to twenty-five years at least, still belongs to petroleum, and the internal combustion engine (ICE) is far from dead. But expect more hybrids for reduced fuel consumption and emissions levels. Expect more diesels and diesel- electric hybrids; diesels, especially in Europe, are not what they once were. Natural gas is already in use for some fleet vehicles in this country, and requires relatively few vehicle modifications. Hydrogen can be used in regular spark-ignition internal combustion engines with more modification; several companies have experimental hydrogen ICE cars running today, and some were at the Challenge Bibendum. I had the opportunity to drive fuel-cell, hydrogen, hybrid, electric, and modern diesel vehicles at Challenge Bibendum, and will report more in coming weeks. Stay tuned.