CSM Worldwide Forecasts Future Vehicle Production Trends In Europe and North America

TOKYO, Feb. 16, 2004 -- The European and North American automotive markets are mature, but the next several years will provide some opportunities for growth, according to research presented recently by CSM Worldwide in Tokyo, Japan. Some key trends in these markets include:

* The European market is expected to stage a recovery through 2004, which should be sustained in the following year. Against this the continued appreciation of the Euro versus the U.S. dollar will harm exports, especially the premium products from German OEMs. Production volumes for all of Europe will hit 21.8 million by 2009, up from 18.8 million in 2003.

* Capacity investment continues to be centered in Central/Eastern Europe, attracting programs to meet both the growth in local consumption and for export back into Western Europe. Capacity utilization in Central Europe will grow from 63 percent in 2001 to 95 percent in 2009, while production volumes will grow from 2.6 million to 4.5 million units during the same period.

* In an increasingly competitive environment, OEMs continue to be pressured to find new offerings based on highly flexible platform architectures. Growth in tall B-segment programs, like the Fiat Idea or Renault's upcoming J77, is an example of this trend. Other segment growth opportunities in Europe between 2003 to 2009 include C-segment (5.2 to 6.2 million units) and A Segment (1.0 to 1.7 million units).

* Pickup trucks are becoming the battleground in North America. Sales will hold steady at about 3 million units per year in the U.S. from 2003 to 2009, but market share will shift from traditional segment leaders Ford and Chevrolet to newer entries from New Domestics such as Nissan and Toyota. However, a lifting of the 25 percent tariff on pickups by the end of the decade could finally allow pickup sourcing for NAFTA to efficiently extend beyond its boundaries.

* In North America, capacity utilization continues to be a point of differentiation between the traditional Big Three and the New Domestic automakers. By 2009 the New Domestics will be running at an average of 94 percent utilization while the Big Three will average 86 percent.

* As North America becomes more competitive and less profitable for established OEMs, GM, Ford and DCX continue to look abroad for expansion in new markets (China, Thailand or South Korea) or lower-cost sourcing alternatives such as DCX importing the Smart or GM reaching the entry-level small car segment with the South Korea-built Chevrolet Aveo.

CSM Worldwide supports more than 350 automotive suppliers with global market intelligence and forecasting services. With corporate offices in Detroit, CSM Worldwide covers the global automotive environment from London, Brussels, Frankfurt, Budapest, Sao Paulo, Tokyo, Singapore, Shanghai and Bangalore.