New Markets, Tougher Competition Highlight an Industry in Transition, According to CSM Worldwide

TRAVERSE CITY, Mich., Aug. 7, 2003 -- Speaking at the Management Briefing Seminars held here today, Michael Robinet, CSM Worldwide vice president of global forecast services, presented analysis of an automotive industry in a state of transition. Robinet's presentation examined several critical issues and trends facing the global industry during the coming years. According to Robinet, things to watch:

* China is and will remain the industry's growth market. Between 2002 and 2008 China's vehicle production will grow at a compounded annual rate of 15 percent, with production hitting 6.3 million in 2008 (an increase of 3.6 million vehicles from 2002).

* Hyundai, Toyota and Honda will have the greatest percentage growth of any OEMs between 2002 and 2008, with growth rates of 10 percent, 5 percent and 5 percent, respectively. Global expansion will fuel the growth of these OEMs while DaimlerChrysler, Ford, Volkswagen and General Motors will have growth rates around 1 percent.

* By 2008, vehicle platforms with global annual volumes in excess of 1 million units will comprise 33 percent of vehicle production. This is up from 28 percent in 2002. Total platforms exceeding 1 million units per year will jump from 5 to 15 during that same period.

* North America vehicle production is well into a dramatic shift south. Production volumes between 1993 and 2008 in Mexico and the southern U.S. states will grow 111 percent and 91 percent, respectively.

"Global rationalization will be the most important trend during the next ten years," said Robinet. "Emerging markets such as China, South Korea, Thailand, Czech Republic and Slovakia will lead the world in incremental growth."

Regarding North America, Robinet stated, "Capacity utilization is not an industry problem, but an OEM one. The concept that vehicle capacity can be measured in its totality, as if it's some large sea that ebbs and flows, is ludicrous. One OEM's capacity problem is its problem to solve."

For a copy of the full presentation, please contact Scott Worden at Quell Communications; 248-649-8900 or scott@quell.com .

CSM Worldwide supports more than 350 automotive suppliers with global market intelligence and forecasting services. With corporate offices in Detroit, CSM Worldwide covers the global automotive environment from London, Brussels, Frankfurt, Budapest, Sao Paulo, Tokyo, Beijing, Shanghai and New Delhi.