J.D. Power and Associates Reports: New U.S. Vehicle Retail Sales Drop Slightly Following the Start of War with Iraq

    WESTLAKE VILLAGE, Calif.--March 25, 2003--Contrary to some concerns about the war's impact on new U.S. vehicle sales, J.D. Power and Associates data shows that retail sales have dropped by only 8 percent since the start of the war with Iraq last week, compared with the corresponding four-day period a year ago. This four-day period is Thursday, March 20, through Sunday, March 23, 2003.
    In an effort to measure the impact of the Iraqi conflict on U.S. new vehicle retail sales, J.D. Power and Associates Global Forecasting Department and Power Information Network, LLC, are providing weekly assessments. Sales data includes retail sales for cars and light trucks in the United States. The data does not include fleet sales.
    Power Information Network (PIN), an affiliate of J.D. Power and Associates that collects daily new vehicle transaction data, reports new vehicle retail sales dropped 5 percent last Thursday, March 20, and 2 percent last Friday, March 21 -- the first two sales days after the war began -- compared with the corresponding days a year ago.
    The new vehicle retail sales pace dropped sharply over the past weekend. On Saturday -- generally the busiest sales day of the week -- retail sales were down 14 percent compared to the same day a year ago, and retail sales on Sunday were down 12 percent.
    "While these are substantial declines, they are anticipated, and nowhere near the levels we saw in the days following the terrorist attacks of September 2001 when sales were off pace by 25 percent," said Dr. Robert Schnorbus, chief economist at J.D. Power and Associates. "What we saw over the weekend was people preoccupied with the war. With the nation's attention now focused on the events in Iraq, we expect retail sales to continue to be down 10 percent, on average, over the remainder of the month."
    J.D. Power and Associates retail sales forecast for March 2003 is 1.18 million cars and light trucks, compared with 1.27 million in March 2002, based on the expectation that retail sales will be down 10 percent for the remainder of the month.
    J.D. Power and Associates retail sales forecasts are derived from a joint effort between its Global Forecasting Department and PIN, an affiliate of J.D. Power and Associates that gathers new vehicle retail transaction data from nearly 6,000 participating auto franchises in 26 U.S. markets.
    J.D. Power and Associates plans to issue to the media weekly updates on new vehicle retail sales as long as the conflict continues. Updates can also be found on the J.D. Power and Associates home page at www.jdpa.com.