Experts Foresee Decline in Heavy-Duty Vehicle Market Share for Diesel
PASADENA, Calif.--March 6, 2003--Prime Challengers Include Truck Systems Powered by Natural Gas,
Hybrid Technology, According to a Survey Conducted at the Clean
Heavy-Duty Vehicles Conference
Over the next decade, a market forecast by industry experts predicts that diesel fuel and engines will not maintain their near total dominance in the heavy-duty vehicle industry, with the leading challenges coming from natural gas and hybrid technology.
According to the results of a modified "Delphi" market forecast exercise -- conducted as part of the 3rd Annual Clean Heavy-Duty Vehicles Conference on February 19-21 -- a cross section of heavy-duty vehicle industry participants believe the market share for diesel engine systems -- now the dominant driver in heavy-duty trucks -- will significantly decline by 2010.
The results forecast diesel slipping to less than 80% of new heavy-duty vehicles sold by the year 2010 (from near 100% today), and to less than 66% of the new heavy-duty truck market by 2020.
In contrast, by 2010 natural gas engine systems are projected to account for 10% of the market, hybrid systems for another roughly 10%, with fuel cell systems somewhere under 2%. By 2020, natural gas is projected to increase to over 11% of new trucks; hybrids are projected to increase to 17%; and fuel cell systems to as much as 6% of the new truck market. This represents a significant potential shift in technologies and fuels.
Respondents provided forecasts in three other areas. In looking at alternative formulations of diesel fuel, they projected that gas-to-liquid or synthetic diesel formulations would make up 5-10% of the 2010 market for diesel fuels, and bio diesel somewhat less than 5%. By 2020, the market share for each of these is expected to rise to near 10%.
In assessing the issues that would motivate a shift to alternatives to diesel, respondents ranked emissions requirements and fuel costs as a virtual tie for the top issues motivating change in 2010 -- with emissions just barely winning out -- followed by energy security issues and global warming a distant fourth. By 2020, respondents believe fuel costs will emerge as the primary issue motivating change.
Finally, respondents felt it highly likely that within the next ten years natural gas and hybrid systems would be used in urban refuse trucks, urban delivery trucks and transit buses. In delivery and transit, respondents listed hybrids as 100% likely. Interestingly, while most felt it highly unlikely that fuel cell drive systems would emerge in urban refuse or delivery trucks, 57% thought it likely fuel cells would emerge in transit buses. Most respondents felt long haul transport trucks were unlikely applications for natural gas, fuel cells and hybrids.
"The results were a bit surprising but very intriguing," said John Boesel, president of WestStart-CALSTART. "While not a scientific survey, we had a good cross-section of industry experts who did arrive at a consensus through this process: that change is coming to heavy-duty vehicle technology, that diesel fuel itself is changing, and that fuel costs and emission requirements are the drivers. Clearly the next 10 years will be exciting ones, and our role is to support those emerging needs."
While not a pre-selected group of experts, as in a traditional Delphi multi-round forecasting exercise, the attendees of the Clean Heavy-Duty Vehicles Conference did represent a valuable industry cross-section. Attendees were composed of: original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) -- 8%; suppliers/developers -- 34%; fleets/truck users -- 11%; military -- 11%; government agencies -- 12%; research -- 12%; fuel suppliers -- 8%; other -- 4%. As such, the WestStart "Delphi" provided a cross-disciplinary, cross-technology forecast of the future of heavy-duty truck technologies and fuels.
WestStart-CALSTART -- now celebrating a decade of innovation -- is the nation's leading advanced transportation technologies consortium. It is a fuel-neutral, participant-supported organization of more than 120 companies and agencies, dedicated to expanding and supporting a high-tech transportation industry that cleans the air, creates jobs and improves energy efficiency. WestStart serves as a strategic broker to spur advanced transportation technologies, systems and the companies that make them. Its California operating division does business as CALSTART. Visit www.calstart.org for more information.
Complete results and analysis of the Delphi Market Forecast exercise are available by contacting Susan Romeo at WestStart-CALSTART, 626/744-5686.