Japan Carmakers: Expansion Plans

TOKYO, Jan 27, 2003; Chang-Ran Kim writing for Reuters reported that Japan's top automakers reported strong production rises in 2002 on Monday and expect that to continue this year, but much of the expansion is expected in overseas factories, boding ill for Japan's struggling economy.

That trend was already apparent to some extent in 2002 -- data for which were released on Monday -- when four of Japan's five biggest carmakers reported double-digit jumps in output abroad but only single-digit rises at home.

Toyota Motor Corp, Japan's top automaker, saw a 21 percent surge in overseas output, but only a 3.9 percent rise in Japan. Global production was up 9.7 percent at 5.635 million units.

Second-ranked Honda Motor Co scored a 9.4 percent rise globally, helped by an 11 percent rise overseas. Nissan Motor Co was alone in reporting a bigger rise at home, due to the popularity of the March subcompact and Fairlady Z sports car.

But as Japanese automakers continue to spread out their production sites around the globe to lower costs, minimise currency risk and avoid political friction, the gap in Japanese and overseas output is expected to widen, analysts said.

"Some of the need for exported vehicles from Japan is being replaced by overseas production," said Christopher Richter, analyst at HSBC Securities.

While Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Mitsubishi Motors Corp and Mazda Motor Corp all posted big rises in exports, most plan to boost capacity in the high-volume North American region this year, likely limiting export growth.

Toyota last month forecast a four percent rise in global production this year, while Honda expects an 11 percent jump. Third-ranked Nissan has said it expects a steady rise in production every year to meet its target of selling an additional one million units annually.

Toyota, for a start, will add capacity in North America for its minivans and transfer production of a luxury sport utility vehicle model to the region from Japan.

Honda plans to double capacity at its Alabama plant in the next year or so, while Nissan will build more vehicles at its new plant in Canton, Mississippi.

Strong production rises in the fast-growing Chinese and Southeast Asian markets are also expected.

JAPAN ECONOMY TO SUFFER

That could be bad news for Japan's frail economy, for which exports have been a rare bright spot over the past year.

"The situation for the automakers themselves is fine, but I think the domestic economy will get less contribution from the auto industry," Richter said.

The weak economy, in turn, is set to contribute to lower domestic production by reining in car demand. Industry executives have forecast overall car sales in Japan will stay flat or shrink slightly this year.

Domestic production is also likely to suffer as more Japanese cars sold at home are built abroad.

In what could spell the start of a trend, Toyota began manufacturing the Voltz sports wagon in the United States last year for sale in Japan.

Honda, meanwhile, started selling the Thai-built Fit Aria compact in Japan last month. The car is Honda's first to be imported from Asia.

Reflecting the drive to produce more cars abroad, Honda has said it plans to build 2.9 percent fewer vehicles domestically this year compared with 2002. In contrast, it expects overseas output to surge 23 percent.

Similarly, Toyota expects domestic production to fall three percent and overseas output to climb 15 percent.

The following are figures for domestic output, domestic sales, exports, overseas output and global output at Japan's five leading carmakers for 2002, with percentage changes from the year before in brackets.

Japan Output Japan Sales Exports Toyota 3,485,162 (+ 3.9) 1,680,479 (- 2.0) 1,816,785 (+ 9.1) Honda 1,386,379 (+ 7.9) 902,658 (+ 4.6) 475,796 (+14.5) Nissan 1,392,439 (+ 9.6) 773,743 (+ 5.8) 672,671 (+20.8) M'bishi 871,304 (+ 4.4) 416,375 (-14.7) 451,479 (+22.0) Mazda 773,798 (+ 6.1) 262,988 (- 6.5) 521,272 (+ 8.8)

Overseas Output Global Output Toyota 2,150,520 (+20.8) 5,635,682 (+ 9.7) Honda 1,514,408 (+10.8) 2,900,787 (+ 9.4) Nissan 1,297,856 (+ 6.5) 2,690,295 (+ 8.1) M'bishi 951,340 (+14.1) 1,822,644 (+ 9.3) Mazda 169,540 (+21.6) 943,338 (+ 8.6)