Strategy Analytics Publishes Top 10 Global Wireless Predictions for 2003
BOSTON--Dec. 19, 2002--In 2003, the Strategy Analytics Global Wireless Practice expects solid subscriber growth in Asia, disappointing consumer MMS & 3G ramp up in mature markets, surging Asian vendor handset presence and an impressive growth rate for enterprise Instant Messaging and SMS.1. W-CDMA 3G subscribers fail to break 5M as global subscribers pass 1.2B in 2003.
With Japan's NTT DoCoMo still the sole standard-bearer for the W-CDMA technology in the face of ever-lengthening 3G launch delays by European operators, 2003 will be another non-event for the W-CDMA strain of 3G.
2. Verizon Communications falls from global mobile top 10
Strategy Analytics expects Vodafone to relieve Verizon of its largest international wireless asset, Italy's Omnitel, in 2003, resulting in its exit from the global top 10. Upward momentum in the rankings coming entirely from players with strong emerging markets exposure, most notably Telefonica and America Movil.
3. Debt Loads to force Consolidation with T-Mobile US top of List
T-Mobile's new management will find the pressure to divest non-core assets irresistible. T-Mobile & Cingular will merge to provide Cingular with coverage and spectrum relief and a realistic basis for competition with 2 national CDMA, 2 National GSM and Nextel doing battle.
4. Downloadable games will be the fastest growing consumer application during 2003, generating $2 Billion by the end of the year.
Prices will come under intense price competition as third party distributors and 3G entrants aggressively attack the market. The vision of arcade style charging mechanisms, including expiry periods on games and payment for additional levels/ credits will not see widespread deployment by mobile games arcades until towards the end of the year as operators look to educate users and ensure that handset memory is robust enough to provide adequate quality of service.
5. Picture messaging will suffer from slower than anticipated growth throughout 2003.
Free trials, slower than anticipated cross-network interoperability, persistent problems with the quality of phone to email MMS, the fact that only 7 percent of phones sold during the year will contain an integrated camera, and a continued failure to properly educate customers at the retail POS, will all serve to dampen MMS usage.
6. SMS and email use within enterprises will remain on an accelerated growth trajectory generating nearly $6 Billion in revenues globally in 2003.
Instant Messaging will experience the most dramatic growth in the enterprise with worldwide revenues growing to over $2 Billion by 2007 (a 58 percent CAGR). Within six years, IM will overtake email as the dominant modality of written electronic communications.
7. While consumer adoption of MMS will sputter in the short term, MMS and other means of wireless photo/video messaging will find a surprisingly receptive market in the enterprise sector.
Medical services, construction, manufacturing and other "expert systems" will leverage mobile imaging technologies as a means of remotely tapping into a finite supply of centralized expertise for assistance. Strategy Analytics predicts that enterprises worldwide will spend over $1 Billion on photo and video messaging, growing in 2003.
8. Samsung 20 percent profit margins fuel a challenge to Motorola's #2 market share position.
Motorola is vulnerable in volume GSM mid- and entry-level categories. The Connected Youth and Technopreneur (young business professionals) segments will determine winners and losers. Samsung's strength in mid range GSM categories will enable them to slide popular mid range handsets into entry level segments in 2003 directly impacting a Nokia stronghold and a Motorola weakness.
9. LG overtakes SEMC in the top 5 global handset vendors as shipments Post Modest Growth
LG will not pause to blink at Sony Ericsson who has continued to disappoint operators and failed to deliver on entry and mid range products. A parting of the SEMC venture is most likely in 2003 with Ericsson most likely to depart. Sony will leverage its consumer brand to resurrect the product line, but will have little ability to stop its slide from the top 5 in 2003.
10. 160 Percent growth in shipments of wireless PDAs expected in 2003.
Palm will experience a `bubble' of growth on launching its new operating system that allows it to maintain 50 percent operating system market share through 2003 while H-P and Toshiba lead PocketPC based vendors.
About Strategy Analytics
Strategy Analytics, Inc., a global research and consulting firm, provides timely insights and strategic business solutions to companies operating at the convergence of information, communications and entertainment technologies. With worldwide headquarters in Newton, MA and principal offices in England, France and Germany, Strategy Analytics focuses on market opportunities and challenges in the areas of Automotive Electronics, Broadband, Telematics, Wireless Strategies and Enabling Technologies. For more information, see www.strategyanalytics.com.