J.D. Power and Associates Reports: September Light-Vehicle Sales Fall Sharply

    WESTLAKE VILLAGE, Calif.--Sept. 18, 2002--Slow sales the first two weeks of the month indicate a weakening of U.S. light-vehicle sales in September, according to J.D. Power and Associates.
    New-vehicle sales were slow the first week of the month because sales through the Labor Day holiday counted toward August totals, and incentives, which were scheduled to expire Sept. 3, pulled some sales ahead. Second week sales likely were affected by the anniversary of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks as well as consumers waiting for incentive programs to improve.
    Following two very strong months in which total new light-vehicle sales reached a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) above 18 million units, September sales are projected to dip to a 15.9 million-unit SAAR -- based on Power Information Network (PIN) retail sales data from the first two weeks of the month. Actual units sold in September are expected to reach 1.2 million.
    "Sales the first two weeks were quite low, but we anticipate much stronger numbers for the rest of September," said Walter McManus, executive director of global forecasting at J.D. Power and Associates.
    New-vehicle sales in September of 2001 started strong, but quickly fell following the Sept. 11 attacks. Sales remained sluggish until General Motors began advertising its "Keep America Rolling" campaign on Sept. 21. By the fourth week, sales had fully recovered, resulting in a 16.1 million-unit SAAR leading into October, which was the best new-vehicle selling month in history.
    "We expect the third week of September this year to be well above the third week of September last year, perhaps as much as 30 percent better," McManus said. "And we expect the fourth week to be 10 to 15 percent above the fourth week last September."
    Automakers' use of incentives, which were the driver behind the recent sales boom, have been scaled back somewhat in September. The industry average total of cash-plus-interest subvention peaked at $1,480 per vehicle in the last week of August. By the second week of September it had fallen to less than $1,380 per vehicle.
    J.D. Power and Associates is keeping its 2002 calendar-year forecast at 16.8 million units.
    The firm's monthly sales forecasts are derived from a joint effort between its Global Forecasting Department and Power Information Network (PIN), a division of J.D. Power and Associates that compiles new-vehicle retail transaction data from more than 5,900 participating auto franchises in 26 U.S. markets.
    Headquartered in Westlake Village, Calif., J.D. Power and Associates is a global marketing information services firm operating in key business sectors including market research, forecasting, consulting, training and customer satisfaction. Media e-mail contact: john.tews@jdpa.com or michael.greywitt@jdpa.com. www.jdpa.com