Ward's Forecasts February U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales

SOUTHFIELD, Mich., Feb. 11 -- Ward's Communications, a PRIMEDIA company and the world's leading provider of auto industry information, today forecast that U.S. light-vehicle sales will remain sluggish in February, continuing the payback for last fall's incentives binge that pulled car-buying forward from this year.

Ward's forecast, updated monthly for subscribers to WardsAuto.com, sees this month's sales of cars and light trucks tracking to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.89 million. Although slightly higher than January's 15.79 million, the SAAR remains below the 16 million level that has become the benchmark of a good month. During fourth-quarter 2001, zero-interest financing swelled sales to an 18.6 million rate.

At the forecast SAAR, February's actual sales volume will be 7.9 percent behind year-ago, or 1.25 million units. Ward's expects imported vehicle sales to jump nearly 20 percent, with domestically built models slumping 13 percent.

``Inventory is high enough to support an even bigger month,'' said Haig Stoddard, Ward's manager of industry analysis. ``But March production schedules would have to be increased to meet second-quarter demand -- normally the highest-volume quarter of the year -- if the combined annual sales rate of February and March stays close to the 16 million-unit level.''