Gasoline and Diesel Powered Vehicles Will Dominate Through 2020
CAMBRIDGE, Mass.--Jan. 14, 2001--Despite public and private efforts to develop new sources of automotive power, advanced forms of fossil-fueled spark ignition and diesel engines will continue to dominate the market through 2020, according to a new joint study by technology and innovation consulting firm Arthur D. Little and automotive and industry consultants at DRI-WEFA.
The forecast for the continued reliance on fossil-fuel power for automobiles takes into account advances in fuel cell research such as the Bush administration's announcement last week supporting the development of fuel cells through its "Freedom Car" initiative.
"Last week's announcement by the Bush administration will accelerate commercialization of automotive fuel cells," said J. R. Linna, an automotive expert in the Energy & Transportation Technology group at Arthur D. Little. "In the interim, however, gasoline prices will likely remain stable and affordable. Advances in gasoline and diesel engine technology will increase fuel efficiency and keep these powertrains competitive for twenty years or more."
The study, entitled "Future Powertrain Technologies: 2008 to 2020" was developed for major component suppliers, OEMs and policy makers and is slated to be presented tomorrow in Troy, Michigan. The study developed three plausible scenarios of emissions regulations, fuel efficiency or carbon dioxide requirements, crude oil price and economic outlook. For each scenario, the mix of powertrain (engine, transmission, and fuel system) technologies in each geographic region was forecast. The technical barriers to the commercialization of advanced spark ignition, diesel engines, hybrid and fuel cell vehicles as well as the various forms of advanced transmissions and exhaust cleanup were identified and assessed.
Despite the continued trend to use traditional fuel sources, the authors of the study foresee greatly improved engine, transmission and fuel system technologies compared with what is now on the market. Improvements will include "mechatronics," or the integration of electronic controls with engine function, the use of advanced lubricants, and improved manufacturing techniques and materials. As a result of these refinements, the study anticipates substantial improvements in engine emissions and fuel efficiency.
"For the first time in 100 years, we are seeing a new powertrain successfully penetrating the market," said Phil Gott, director of automotive consulting at DRI-WEFA and program manager of the study. "Over the next two decades, hybrids and other improvements in the powertrain and vehicle will mean Americans will be able to continue their love affair with the SUV, even if we see stricter regulations imposed for fuel efficiency."
"In Europe, the diesel engine will continue its climb to become the technology of choice for most automotive applications. Currently, roughly 40% of all cars in Europe operate with diesel engines, known for providing dramatic fuel efficiency as a tradeoff for expelling more particulates into the atmosphere," said Nick Russ, a European automotive expert at Arthur D. Little's Paris office.
The study anticipates that diesel will be outlawed in some areas of the world due to the potential health effects of particulates. Such a case would be untenable in Europe where the authors expect strong reliance on the fuel efficient diesel for automotive power.
About Arthur D. Little
Arthur D. Little, (www.adltechnology.com), is the world's premier consulting firm working at the interface of business and the technologies that drive innovation and growth. Its scientists, engineers, and management experts work to advance technology, develop novel products, direct strategy decisions backed by technical know-how, and leverage intellectual property for business gain. Its clients include the major OEMs, engine manufacturers, and automotive suppliers. The company's Technology & Innovation business is ISO 9001 certified and has more than 70 research and development laboratories.
About DRI-WEFA
DRI-WEFA, (http://www.dri-wefa.com), a subsidiary of privately held Global Insight, Inc., provides the most comprehensive economic coverage of countries, regions and industries available from any source. DRI-WEFA brings a unique combination of expertise, models, data and analytical software together with a common analytical framework and a consistent set of assumptions. DRI-WEFA collects and delivers financial information to clients and also provides a broad range of consulting capabilities covering market analysis, business planning, investment strategy, risk assessment, infrastructure analysis, policy evaluation, and economic development. The Global Automotive Group at DRI-WEFA provides forecasts of both vehicle and component production and sales and also assists clients with specialized technology forecasts, market opportunity assessments, and strategic business advice. The company has over 3,000 clients in industry, finance and government around the world with $70 million in revenues, over 500 employees and 20 offices covering North and South America, Europe, Africa, the Middle East and Asia.